Republican control of Congress has enabled two reconciliation packages so far this term, including the June 2026 immigration enforcement measure signed into law, but efforts toward a third package face Senate hesitation. House Republicans advanced a budget resolution in July instructing committees on roughly $95 billion in defense, agriculture, and election measures, yet Senate Majority Leader John Thune has delayed action until after appropriations deadlines and amid concerns over amendments and limited floor time before the midterms. Internal GOP differences on scope, offsets, and timing, combined with the need for a new budget resolution and a continuing resolution to avert a shutdown, have kept momentum low. Traders price limited odds of Senate passage by early fall dates and higher but still contested odds by year-end, reflecting procedural hurdles and pre-election caution.