Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS data points to a daily minimum of 17–18°C in London on September 7, driven by mild southwesterly maritime airflow, persistent cloud cover limiting overnight radiative cooling, and residual warmth from the preceding weekend's 26°C peak. This setup keeps temperatures above seasonal norms for early September, with little indication of a stronger northerly or easterly shift before the date. Traders have priced the highest implied probabilities accordingly, reflecting high model agreement on these thresholds while noting that any last-minute increase in clear skies or wind patterns could allow modest further cooling toward 16°C or below. Updated official guidance from the Met Office or ECMWF runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these odds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on September 7?
Lowest temperature in London on September 7?
18°C 48%
17°C 33%
19°C 14%
16°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
13°C or below
3%
14°C
3%
15°C
4%
16°C
9%
17°C
33%
18°C
48%
19°C
14%
20°C
2%
21°C
2%
22°C
2%
23°C or higher
2%
18°C 48%
17°C 33%
19°C 14%
16°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
3%
14°C
$0 Vol.
3%
15°C
$0 Vol.
4%
16°C
$0 Vol.
9%
17°C
$107 Vol.
33%
18°C
$99 Vol.
48%
19°C
$81 Vol.
14%
20°C
$0 Vol.
2%
21°C
$0 Vol.
2%
22°C
$0 Vol.
2%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS data points to a daily minimum of 17–18°C in London on September 7, driven by mild southwesterly maritime airflow, persistent cloud cover limiting overnight radiative cooling, and residual warmth from the preceding weekend's 26°C peak. This setup keeps temperatures above seasonal norms for early September, with little indication of a stronger northerly or easterly shift before the date. Traders have priced the highest implied probabilities accordingly, reflecting high model agreement on these thresholds while noting that any last-minute increase in clear skies or wind patterns could allow modest further cooling toward 16°C or below. Updated official guidance from the Met Office or ECMWF runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these odds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$287End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS data points to a daily minimum of 17–18°C in London on September 7, driven by mild southwesterly maritime airflow, persistent cloud cover limiting overnight radiative cooling, and residual warmth from the preceding weekend's 26°C peak. This setup keeps temperatures above seasonal norms for early September, with little indication of a stronger northerly or easterly shift before the date. Traders have priced the highest implied probabilities accordingly, reflecting high model agreement on these thresholds while noting that any last-minute increase in clear skies or wind patterns could allow modest further cooling toward 16°C or below. Updated official guidance from the Met Office or ECMWF runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these odds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$287End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS data points to a daily minimum of 17–18°C in London on September 7, driven by mild southwesterly maritime airflow, persistent cloud cover limiting overnight radiative cooling, and residual warmth from the preceding weekend's 26°C peak. This setup keeps temperatures above seasonal norms for early September, with little indication of a stronger northerly or easterly shift before the date. Traders have priced the highest implied probabilities accordingly, reflecting high model agreement on these thresholds while noting that any last-minute increase in clear skies or wind patterns could allow modest further cooling toward 16°C or below. Updated official guidance from the Met Office or ECMWF runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these odds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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