**Current official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency position the minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 6 at 20°C, with supporting model consensus across multiple sources indicating a likely range of 20–22°C amid persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northerly winds maintaining high humidity levels near 85–95%.** These conditions limit radiational cooling overnight while preventing significant warming, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes at 21°C, 20°C, and 22°C. Early September climatological normals show average lows near 21.8°C, providing context for the modest cooling expected under this synoptic pattern. The primary near-term catalyst remains the latest JMA guidance and ensemble runs, with the recorded minimum determined by official station observations at the end of the calendar day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 6?
21°C 39%
22°C 28%
20°C 20%
23°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
8%
20°C
27%
21°C
39%
22°C
28%
23°C
5%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
21°C 39%
22°C 28%
20°C 20%
23°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
17°C or below
$105 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$110 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$360 Vol.
8%
20°C
$786 Vol.
27%
21°C
$305 Vol.
39%
22°C
$755 Vol.
28%
23°C
$155 Vol.
5%
24°C
$230 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$85 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$75 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$75 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency position the minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 6 at 20°C, with supporting model consensus across multiple sources indicating a likely range of 20–22°C amid persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northerly winds maintaining high humidity levels near 85–95%.** These conditions limit radiational cooling overnight while preventing significant warming, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes at 21°C, 20°C, and 22°C. Early September climatological normals show average lows near 21.8°C, providing context for the modest cooling expected under this synoptic pattern. The primary near-term catalyst remains the latest JMA guidance and ensemble runs, with the recorded minimum determined by official station observations at the end of the calendar day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$3,042End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency position the minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 6 at 20°C, with supporting model consensus across multiple sources indicating a likely range of 20–22°C amid persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northerly winds maintaining high humidity levels near 85–95%.** These conditions limit radiational cooling overnight while preventing significant warming, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes at 21°C, 20°C, and 22°C. Early September climatological normals show average lows near 21.8°C, providing context for the modest cooling expected under this synoptic pattern. The primary near-term catalyst remains the latest JMA guidance and ensemble runs, with the recorded minimum determined by official station observations at the end of the calendar day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,042End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency position the minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 6 at 20°C, with supporting model consensus across multiple sources indicating a likely range of 20–22°C amid persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northerly winds maintaining high humidity levels near 85–95%.** These conditions limit radiational cooling overnight while preventing significant warming, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes at 21°C, 20°C, and 22°C. Early September climatological normals show average lows near 21.8°C, providing context for the modest cooling expected under this synoptic pattern. The primary near-term catalyst remains the latest JMA guidance and ensemble runs, with the recorded minimum determined by official station observations at the end of the calendar day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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