**Official forecasts from Environment Canada and multiple models indicate a tonight low near 15°C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds, consistent with the market's clustered probabilities around 13–15°C.** Mild maritime air and limited cloud cover support moderate overnight radiative cooling from current morning readings near 16°C, aligning with the September climatological average low of 15.6°C. Subtle differences in model timing of clearing skies or localized urban heat effects create the tight spread between 13°C and 15°C outcomes, while colder or warmer extremes remain low-probability given the stable pattern and absence of stronger advection. Updated model runs and official evening observations will provide the clearest signals ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on September 5?
16°C 93%
15°C 7%
14°C 3%
13°C 2%
$613 Vol.
$613 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
2%
14°C
3%
15°C
7%
16°C
93%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 93%
15°C 7%
14°C 3%
13°C 2%
$613 Vol.
$613 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
10°C or below
$37 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$12 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$44 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$32 Vol.
2%
14°C
$37 Vol.
3%
15°C
$0 Vol.
7%
16°C
$76 Vol.
93%
17°C
$134 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$72 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$109 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$60 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from Environment Canada and multiple models indicate a tonight low near 15°C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds, consistent with the market's clustered probabilities around 13–15°C.**
Mild maritime air and limited cloud cover support moderate overnight radiative cooling from current morning readings near 16°C, aligning with the September climatological average low of 15.6°C. Subtle differences in model timing of clearing skies or localized urban heat effects create the tight spread between 13°C and 15°C outcomes, while colder or warmer extremes remain low-probability given the stable pattern and absence of stronger advection. Updated model runs and official evening observations will provide the clearest signals ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$613End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from Environment Canada and multiple models indicate a tonight low near 15°C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds, consistent with the market's clustered probabilities around 13–15°C.**
Mild maritime air and limited cloud cover support moderate overnight radiative cooling from current morning readings near 16°C, aligning with the September climatological average low of 15.6°C. Subtle differences in model timing of clearing skies or localized urban heat effects create the tight spread between 13°C and 15°C outcomes, while colder or warmer extremes remain low-probability given the stable pattern and absence of stronger advection. Updated model runs and official evening observations will provide the clearest signals ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$613End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from Environment Canada and multiple models indicate a tonight low near 15°C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds, consistent with the market's clustered probabilities around 13–15°C.** Mild maritime air and limited cloud cover support moderate overnight radiative cooling from current morning readings near 16°C, aligning with the September climatological average low of 15.6°C. Subtle differences in model timing of clearing skies or localized urban heat effects create the tight spread between 13°C and 15°C outcomes, while colder or warmer extremes remain low-probability given the stable pattern and absence of stronger advection. Updated model runs and official evening observations will provide the clearest signals ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions