Recent MetService guidance and ensemble model consensus point to an overnight low near 8°C in Wellington on September 6, driven by a low-pressure system crossing the South Island that shifts winds from strong northwesterlies to cooler southerlies by evening. This change advects maritime polar air while increased cloud cover and widespread rain limit nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping temperatures from dropping much below the forecast minimum. Traders appear split because small variations in the timing of the wind shift or rainfall intensity could push the observed low a degree or two either side of 8°C, with historical September minima in the city averaging near 8–9°C under similar synoptic patterns. Updated model runs and MetService briefings tonight will likely refine the exact threshold before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 6?
8°C or below 69%
10°C 50%
14°C 50%
12°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
8°C or below
69%
9°C
16%
10°C
50%
11°C
26%
12°C
27%
13°C
27%
14°C
50%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
8°C or below 69%
10°C 50%
14°C 50%
12°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Vol.
69%
9°C
$0 Vol.
16%
10°C
$0 Vol.
50%
11°C
$0 Vol.
26%
12°C
$0 Vol.
27%
13°C
$44 Vol.
27%
14°C
$0 Vol.
50%
15°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$35 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService guidance and ensemble model consensus point to an overnight low near 8°C in Wellington on September 6, driven by a low-pressure system crossing the South Island that shifts winds from strong northwesterlies to cooler southerlies by evening. This change advects maritime polar air while increased cloud cover and widespread rain limit nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping temperatures from dropping much below the forecast minimum. Traders appear split because small variations in the timing of the wind shift or rainfall intensity could push the observed low a degree or two either side of 8°C, with historical September minima in the city averaging near 8–9°C under similar synoptic patterns. Updated model runs and MetService briefings tonight will likely refine the exact threshold before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$184End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService guidance and ensemble model consensus point to an overnight low near 8°C in Wellington on September 6, driven by a low-pressure system crossing the South Island that shifts winds from strong northwesterlies to cooler southerlies by evening. This change advects maritime polar air while increased cloud cover and widespread rain limit nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping temperatures from dropping much below the forecast minimum. Traders appear split because small variations in the timing of the wind shift or rainfall intensity could push the observed low a degree or two either side of 8°C, with historical September minima in the city averaging near 8–9°C under similar synoptic patterns. Updated model runs and MetService briefings tonight will likely refine the exact threshold before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$184End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent MetService guidance and ensemble model consensus point to an overnight low near 8°C in Wellington on September 6, driven by a low-pressure system crossing the South Island that shifts winds from strong northwesterlies to cooler southerlies by evening. This change advects maritime polar air while increased cloud cover and widespread rain limit nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping temperatures from dropping much below the forecast minimum. Traders appear split because small variations in the timing of the wind shift or rainfall intensity could push the observed low a degree or two either side of 8°C, with historical September minima in the city averaging near 8–9°C under similar synoptic patterns. Updated model runs and MetService briefings tonight will likely refine the exact threshold before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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