Michigan's 7th congressional district remains a competitive swing seat where Republican incumbent Tom Barrett seeks reelection against Democratic nominee William Lawrence, who secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary. The district's narrow 2024 presidential margin and mix of suburban and rural voters in counties such as Ingham, Livingston, and Clinton create a closely contested environment that shapes trader assessments. Lawrence's progressive platform and recent primary performance contrast with Barrett's incumbency advantages and military background, while national midterm dynamics and expected turnout patterns inform the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMI-07 House Election Winner
MI-07 House Election Winner
$17,484 Vol.
$17,484 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
61%
Republican Party
38%
$17,484 Vol.
$17,484 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$11,931 Vol.
61%
Republican Party
$5,553 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Michigan's 7th congressional district remains a competitive swing seat where Republican incumbent Tom Barrett seeks reelection against Democratic nominee William Lawrence, who secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary. The district's narrow 2024 presidential margin and mix of suburban and rural voters in counties such as Ingham, Livingston, and Clinton create a closely contested environment that shapes trader assessments. Lawrence's progressive platform and recent primary performance contrast with Barrett's incumbency advantages and military background, while national midterm dynamics and expected turnout patterns inform the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$17,484End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Michigan's 7th congressional district remains a competitive swing seat where Republican incumbent Tom Barrett seeks reelection against Democratic nominee William Lawrence, who secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary. The district's narrow 2024 presidential margin and mix of suburban and rural voters in counties such as Ingham, Livingston, and Clinton create a closely contested environment that shapes trader assessments. Lawrence's progressive platform and recent primary performance contrast with Barrett's incumbency advantages and military background, while national midterm dynamics and expected turnout patterns inform the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,484End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Michigan's 7th congressional district remains a competitive swing seat where Republican incumbent Tom Barrett seeks reelection against Democratic nominee William Lawrence, who secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary. The district's narrow 2024 presidential margin and mix of suburban and rural voters in counties such as Ingham, Livingston, and Clinton create a closely contested environment that shapes trader assessments. Lawrence's progressive platform and recent primary performance contrast with Barrett's incumbency advantages and military background, while national midterm dynamics and expected turnout patterns inform the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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