Missouri’s 1st Congressional District, anchored in St. Louis and northern St. Louis County, carries a D+29 Partisan Voter Index and has consistently delivered Democratic margins above 70 percent in recent cycles. Incumbent Wesley Bell secured the Democratic nomination in the August 4, 2026 primary with nearly 60 percent of the vote against former representative Cori Bush, while Republican nominee Paul Berry advanced from a low-turnout primary. Forecasters across Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. The district’s urban demographic profile, limited Republican infrastructure, and the absence of competitive opposition or major scandals sustain the market’s strong Democratic consensus. Late-cycle national shifts, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or unforeseen legal developments remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-01 House Election Winner
MO-01 House Election Winner
$35,144 Vol.
$35,144 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
2%
$35,144 Vol.
$35,144 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$21,487 Vol.
98%
Republican Party
$13,656 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 1st Congressional District, anchored in St. Louis and northern St. Louis County, carries a D+29 Partisan Voter Index and has consistently delivered Democratic margins above 70 percent in recent cycles. Incumbent Wesley Bell secured the Democratic nomination in the August 4, 2026 primary with nearly 60 percent of the vote against former representative Cori Bush, while Republican nominee Paul Berry advanced from a low-turnout primary. Forecasters across Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. The district’s urban demographic profile, limited Republican infrastructure, and the absence of competitive opposition or major scandals sustain the market’s strong Democratic consensus. Late-cycle national shifts, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or unforeseen legal developments remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$35,144End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 1st Congressional District, anchored in St. Louis and northern St. Louis County, carries a D+29 Partisan Voter Index and has consistently delivered Democratic margins above 70 percent in recent cycles. Incumbent Wesley Bell secured the Democratic nomination in the August 4, 2026 primary with nearly 60 percent of the vote against former representative Cori Bush, while Republican nominee Paul Berry advanced from a low-turnout primary. Forecasters across Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. The district’s urban demographic profile, limited Republican infrastructure, and the absence of competitive opposition or major scandals sustain the market’s strong Democratic consensus. Late-cycle national shifts, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or unforeseen legal developments remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,144End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri’s 1st Congressional District, anchored in St. Louis and northern St. Louis County, carries a D+29 Partisan Voter Index and has consistently delivered Democratic margins above 70 percent in recent cycles. Incumbent Wesley Bell secured the Democratic nomination in the August 4, 2026 primary with nearly 60 percent of the vote against former representative Cori Bush, while Republican nominee Paul Berry advanced from a low-turnout primary. Forecasters across Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. The district’s urban demographic profile, limited Republican infrastructure, and the absence of competitive opposition or major scandals sustain the market’s strong Democratic consensus. Late-cycle national shifts, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or unforeseen legal developments remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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