Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat, with forecasters including the Cook Political Report rating the open race Safe or Solid Republican. The departure of incumbent Kevin Hern for the Senate triggered a crowded June 2026 GOP primary that state Representative Mark Tedford won after Jackson Lahmeyer withdrew ahead of the scheduled August runoff. Democrat John Croisant advanced unopposed. The district’s consistent 20-plus-point Republican margins in recent cycles, combined with its voter base and absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure, underpin the 90.5 percent Republican implied probability. A major scandal involving the Republican nominee, an unusually sharp national Democratic wave, or dramatically suppressed turnout would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOK-01 House Election Winner
OK-01 House Election Winner
$24,814 Vol.
$24,814 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
91%
Democratic Party
9%
$24,814 Vol.
$24,814 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$12,961 Vol.
91%
Democratic Party
$11,854 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat, with forecasters including the Cook Political Report rating the open race Safe or Solid Republican. The departure of incumbent Kevin Hern for the Senate triggered a crowded June 2026 GOP primary that state Representative Mark Tedford won after Jackson Lahmeyer withdrew ahead of the scheduled August runoff. Democrat John Croisant advanced unopposed. The district’s consistent 20-plus-point Republican margins in recent cycles, combined with its voter base and absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure, underpin the 90.5 percent Republican implied probability. A major scandal involving the Republican nominee, an unusually sharp national Democratic wave, or dramatically suppressed turnout would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$24,814End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat, with forecasters including the Cook Political Report rating the open race Safe or Solid Republican. The departure of incumbent Kevin Hern for the Senate triggered a crowded June 2026 GOP primary that state Representative Mark Tedford won after Jackson Lahmeyer withdrew ahead of the scheduled August runoff. Democrat John Croisant advanced unopposed. The district’s consistent 20-plus-point Republican margins in recent cycles, combined with its voter base and absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure, underpin the 90.5 percent Republican implied probability. A major scandal involving the Republican nominee, an unusually sharp national Democratic wave, or dramatically suppressed turnout would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,814End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat, with forecasters including the Cook Political Report rating the open race Safe or Solid Republican. The departure of incumbent Kevin Hern for the Senate triggered a crowded June 2026 GOP primary that state Representative Mark Tedford won after Jackson Lahmeyer withdrew ahead of the scheduled August runoff. Democrat John Croisant advanced unopposed. The district’s consistent 20-plus-point Republican margins in recent cycles, combined with its voter base and absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure, underpin the 90.5 percent Republican implied probability. A major scandal involving the Republican nominee, an unusually sharp national Democratic wave, or dramatically suppressed turnout would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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