Republican incumbent Mike Kelly holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 16th congressional district, a Northwestern Pennsylvania seat with an R+11 Cook PVI that includes Erie, Crawford, Mercer, Lawrence, and Butler counties. Both major-party candidates advanced through the May 2026 primaries without significant opposition, leaving Kelly to face Democrat Justin Wagner in the November 3 general election. The district’s consistent Republican voting patterns, combined with Kelly’s long incumbency and committee seniority, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 88% Republican probability. With no major recent polling shifts, scandals, or national political events materially altering the local dynamics in the past month, the race remains rated Solid Republican by nonpartisan analysts, limiting Democratic prospects absent late developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPA-16 House Election Winner
PA-16 House Election Winner
$32,821 Vol.
$32,821 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
88%
Democratic Party
11%
$32,821 Vol.
$32,821 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$20,705 Vol.
88%
Democratic Party
$12,116 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Mike Kelly holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 16th congressional district, a Northwestern Pennsylvania seat with an R+11 Cook PVI that includes Erie, Crawford, Mercer, Lawrence, and Butler counties. Both major-party candidates advanced through the May 2026 primaries without significant opposition, leaving Kelly to face Democrat Justin Wagner in the November 3 general election. The district’s consistent Republican voting patterns, combined with Kelly’s long incumbency and committee seniority, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 88% Republican probability. With no major recent polling shifts, scandals, or national political events materially altering the local dynamics in the past month, the race remains rated Solid Republican by nonpartisan analysts, limiting Democratic prospects absent late developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$32,821End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Mike Kelly holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 16th congressional district, a Northwestern Pennsylvania seat with an R+11 Cook PVI that includes Erie, Crawford, Mercer, Lawrence, and Butler counties. Both major-party candidates advanced through the May 2026 primaries without significant opposition, leaving Kelly to face Democrat Justin Wagner in the November 3 general election. The district’s consistent Republican voting patterns, combined with Kelly’s long incumbency and committee seniority, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 88% Republican probability. With no major recent polling shifts, scandals, or national political events materially altering the local dynamics in the past month, the race remains rated Solid Republican by nonpartisan analysts, limiting Democratic prospects absent late developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,821End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Mike Kelly holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 16th congressional district, a Northwestern Pennsylvania seat with an R+11 Cook PVI that includes Erie, Crawford, Mercer, Lawrence, and Butler counties. Both major-party candidates advanced through the May 2026 primaries without significant opposition, leaving Kelly to face Democrat Justin Wagner in the November 3 general election. The district’s consistent Republican voting patterns, combined with Kelly’s long incumbency and committee seniority, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 88% Republican probability. With no major recent polling shifts, scandals, or national political events materially altering the local dynamics in the past month, the race remains rated Solid Republican by nonpartisan analysts, limiting Democratic prospects absent late developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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