Traders view the race for second-best AI agent lab by late October as highly competitive, with multiple outcomes clustered near 50% implied probability and OpenAI at 43% reflecting broad but not dominant sentiment. Moonshot's 38.5% share underscores its momentum in large language model scaling and agent benchmarks, while lower odds for Anthropic, Google, DeepSeek, and others signal uncertainty around release timelines, capability demonstrations, and ecosystem adoption. Recent model updates and competitive positioning among labs continue to drive sentiment shifts, with resolution likely hinging on verifiable agent performance metrics before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 43%
Moonshot 39%
Anthropic 8%
SpaceXAI 4.3%
$18,049 Vol.
$18,049 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
OpenAI
43%
Moonshot
39%
Anthropic
8%
SpaceXAI
4%
4%
DeepSeek
3%
ByteDance
1%
Nvidia
1%
Z.ai
1%
Meta
1%
Mistral
1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
OpenAI 43%
Moonshot 39%
Anthropic 8%
SpaceXAI 4.3%
$18,049 Vol.
$18,049 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
OpenAI
$5,053 Vol.
43%
Moonshot
$4,837 Vol.
39%
Anthropic
$1,655 Vol.
8%
SpaceXAI
$442 Vol.
4%
$1,306 Vol.
4%
DeepSeek
$417 Vol.
3%
ByteDance
$389 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$403 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$366 Vol.
1%
Meta
$330 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$367 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$350 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$329 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$327 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$410 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$266 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$402 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$399 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view the race for second-best AI agent lab by late October as highly competitive, with multiple outcomes clustered near 50% implied probability and OpenAI at 43% reflecting broad but not dominant sentiment. Moonshot's 38.5% share underscores its momentum in large language model scaling and agent benchmarks, while lower odds for Anthropic, Google, DeepSeek, and others signal uncertainty around release timelines, capability demonstrations, and ecosystem adoption. Recent model updates and competitive positioning among labs continue to drive sentiment shifts, with resolution likely hinging on verifiable agent performance metrics before the deadline.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ET
Volume
$18,049End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view the race for second-best AI agent lab by late October as highly competitive, with multiple outcomes clustered near 50% implied probability and OpenAI at 43% reflecting broad but not dominant sentiment. Moonshot's 38.5% share underscores its momentum in large language model scaling and agent benchmarks, while lower odds for Anthropic, Google, DeepSeek, and others signal uncertainty around release timelines, capability demonstrations, and ecosystem adoption. Recent model updates and competitive positioning among labs continue to drive sentiment shifts, with resolution likely hinging on verifiable agent performance metrics before the deadline.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$18,049End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders view the race for second-best AI agent lab by late October as highly competitive, with multiple outcomes clustered near 50% implied probability and OpenAI at 43% reflecting broad but not dominant sentiment. Moonshot's 38.5% share underscores its momentum in large language model scaling and agent benchmarks, while lower odds for Anthropic, Google, DeepSeek, and others signal uncertainty around release timelines, capability demonstrations, and ecosystem adoption. Recent model updates and competitive positioning among labs continue to drive sentiment shifts, with resolution likely hinging on verifiable agent performance metrics before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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