**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestically in late July 2026 and has maintained exceptional momentum through its first three weekends, with domestic totals already exceeding $850 million by mid-August. Strong critical and audience reception, combined with Tom Holland’s star power and franchise familiarity, have produced better-than-expected holds and limited competition heading into the fourth frame. Traders see the 38–41 million range as the clearest outcome because recent daily tracking and historical patterns for similar Marvel tentpoles point to a modest but steady decline that lands squarely in that band. An upset below 35 million would require an unusually sharp drop from audience fatigue or unseasonal weather, while anything above 41 million would demand even stronger word-of-mouth or promotional spikes than currently observed. The market’s near-unanimous pricing reflects this tightly bounded trajectory rather than any single headline event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office
38-41m 99.4%
35-38m 1.2%
<35m <1%
41-44m <1%
$137,984 Vol.
$137,984 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
<35m
<1%
35-38m
1%
38-41m
99%
41-44m
<1%
44m+
<1%
38-41m 99.4%
35-38m 1.2%
<35m <1%
41-44m <1%
$137,984 Vol.
$137,984 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
<35m
$28,546 Vol.
<1%
35-38m
$30,910 Vol.
1%
38-41m
$47,925 Vol.
99%
41-44m
$23,489 Vol.
<1%
44m+
$7,114 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 21 - 23) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestically in late July 2026 and has maintained exceptional momentum through its first three weekends, with domestic totals already exceeding $850 million by mid-August. Strong critical and audience reception, combined with Tom Holland’s star power and franchise familiarity, have produced better-than-expected holds and limited competition heading into the fourth frame. Traders see the 38–41 million range as the clearest outcome because recent daily tracking and historical patterns for similar Marvel tentpoles point to a modest but steady decline that lands squarely in that band.
An upset below 35 million would require an unusually sharp drop from audience fatigue or unseasonal weather, while anything above 41 million would demand even stronger word-of-mouth or promotional spikes than currently observed. The market’s near-unanimous pricing reflects this tightly bounded trajectory rather than any single headline event.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 21 - 23) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 3:56 PM ET
Volume
$137,984End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 3:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 21 - 23) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestically in late July 2026 and has maintained exceptional momentum through its first three weekends, with domestic totals already exceeding $850 million by mid-August. Strong critical and audience reception, combined with Tom Holland’s star power and franchise familiarity, have produced better-than-expected holds and limited competition heading into the fourth frame. Traders see the 38–41 million range as the clearest outcome because recent daily tracking and historical patterns for similar Marvel tentpoles point to a modest but steady decline that lands squarely in that band.
An upset below 35 million would require an unusually sharp drop from audience fatigue or unseasonal weather, while anything above 41 million would demand even stronger word-of-mouth or promotional spikes than currently observed. The market’s near-unanimous pricing reflects this tightly bounded trajectory rather than any single headline event.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 21 - 23) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$137,984End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 3:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestically in late July 2026 and has maintained exceptional momentum through its first three weekends, with domestic totals already exceeding $850 million by mid-August. Strong critical and audience reception, combined with Tom Holland’s star power and franchise familiarity, have produced better-than-expected holds and limited competition heading into the fourth frame. Traders see the 38–41 million range as the clearest outcome because recent daily tracking and historical patterns for similar Marvel tentpoles point to a modest but steady decline that lands squarely in that band. An upset below 35 million would require an unusually sharp drop from audience fatigue or unseasonal weather, while anything above 41 million would demand even stronger word-of-mouth or promotional spikes than currently observed. The market’s near-unanimous pricing reflects this tightly bounded trajectory rather than any single headline event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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