**Strong audience retention and positive word-of-mouth have anchored "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" for a projected $39 million fourth weekend, comfortably inside the 38-41 million band that traders have priced at 98.8% implied probability.** The Tom Holland–Zendaya sequel opened to a record $360 million domestic in late July and has posted better-than-expected holds each frame, including a –45% drop from its third weekend, allowing it to top the chart for a fourth straight week ahead of newcomer "Insidious: Out of the Further." Critical praise for its action set pieces and mature tone, combined with rapid milestone runs past $800 million domestic and $2 billion worldwide, has sustained theatrical momentum far beyond typical superhero legs. An upset below $35 million would require an unusually steep drop or major theater reductions not signaled by current tracking.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office
38-41m 98.8%
35-38m 2.1%
<35m <1%
41-44m <1%
$137,336 Vol.
$137,336 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
<35m
<1%
35-38m
2%
38-41m
99%
41-44m
<1%
44m+
<1%
38-41m 98.8%
35-38m 2.1%
<35m <1%
41-44m <1%
$137,336 Vol.
$137,336 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
<35m
$28,546 Vol.
<1%
35-38m
$30,910 Vol.
2%
38-41m
$47,277 Vol.
99%
41-44m
$23,489 Vol.
<1%
44m+
$7,114 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 21 - 23) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Strong audience retention and positive word-of-mouth have anchored "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" for a projected $39 million fourth weekend, comfortably inside the 38-41 million band that traders have priced at 98.8% implied probability.** The Tom Holland–Zendaya sequel opened to a record $360 million domestic in late July and has posted better-than-expected holds each frame, including a –45% drop from its third weekend, allowing it to top the chart for a fourth straight week ahead of newcomer "Insidious: Out of the Further." Critical praise for its action set pieces and mature tone, combined with rapid milestone runs past $800 million domestic and $2 billion worldwide, has sustained theatrical momentum far beyond typical superhero legs. An upset below $35 million would require an unusually steep drop or major theater reductions not signaled by current tracking.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 21 - 23) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 3:56 PM ET
Volume
$137,336End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 3:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 21 - 23) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Strong audience retention and positive word-of-mouth have anchored "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" for a projected $39 million fourth weekend, comfortably inside the 38-41 million band that traders have priced at 98.8% implied probability.** The Tom Holland–Zendaya sequel opened to a record $360 million domestic in late July and has posted better-than-expected holds each frame, including a –45% drop from its third weekend, allowing it to top the chart for a fourth straight week ahead of newcomer "Insidious: Out of the Further." Critical praise for its action set pieces and mature tone, combined with rapid milestone runs past $800 million domestic and $2 billion worldwide, has sustained theatrical momentum far beyond typical superhero legs. An upset below $35 million would require an unusually steep drop or major theater reductions not signaled by current tracking.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 21 - 23) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$137,336End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 3:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong audience retention and positive word-of-mouth have anchored "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" for a projected $39 million fourth weekend, comfortably inside the 38-41 million band that traders have priced at 98.8% implied probability.** The Tom Holland–Zendaya sequel opened to a record $360 million domestic in late July and has posted better-than-expected holds each frame, including a –45% drop from its third weekend, allowing it to top the chart for a fourth straight week ahead of newcomer "Insidious: Out of the Further." Critical praise for its action set pieces and mature tone, combined with rapid milestone runs past $800 million domestic and $2 billion worldwide, has sustained theatrical momentum far beyond typical superhero legs. An upset below $35 million would require an unusually steep drop or major theater reductions not signaled by current tracking.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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