Bipartisan House proposals such as the FRONTIER Act and related measures for frontier model transparency, independent audits, incident reporting, and NIST safety research have advanced through committee but remain stalled short of enactment amid Senate delays, preemption disputes with state laws, and a compressed legislative calendar before the 2026 midterms. The Trump administration has emphasized executive frameworks and preemption of conflicting state rules over new statutory mandates, limiting momentum for comprehensive safety legislation. Traders assign a 90% probability to no bill passing before 2027 because these factors—partisan differences on regulatory scope, competing priorities, and reliance on existing authorities—have prevented floor action despite multiple introductions and markups this year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated10% chance
$101,790 Vol.
$101,790 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
10% chance
$101,790 Vol.
$101,790 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Bipartisan House proposals such as the FRONTIER Act and related measures for frontier model transparency, independent audits, incident reporting, and NIST safety research have advanced through committee but remain stalled short of enactment amid Senate delays, preemption disputes with state laws, and a compressed legislative calendar before the 2026 midterms. The Trump administration has emphasized executive frameworks and preemption of conflicting state rules over new statutory mandates, limiting momentum for comprehensive safety legislation. Traders assign a 90% probability to no bill passing before 2027 because these factors—partisan differences on regulatory scope, competing priorities, and reliance on existing authorities—have prevented floor action despite multiple introductions and markups this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volume
$101,790End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Bipartisan House proposals such as the FRONTIER Act and related measures for frontier model transparency, independent audits, incident reporting, and NIST safety research have advanced through committee but remain stalled short of enactment amid Senate delays, preemption disputes with state laws, and a compressed legislative calendar before the 2026 midterms. The Trump administration has emphasized executive frameworks and preemption of conflicting state rules over new statutory mandates, limiting momentum for comprehensive safety legislation. Traders assign a 90% probability to no bill passing before 2027 because these factors—partisan differences on regulatory scope, competing priorities, and reliance on existing authorities—have prevented floor action despite multiple introductions and markups this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$101,790End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Bipartisan House proposals such as the FRONTIER Act and related measures for frontier model transparency, independent audits, incident reporting, and NIST safety research have advanced through committee but remain stalled short of enactment amid Senate delays, preemption disputes with state laws, and a compressed legislative calendar before the 2026 midterms. The Trump administration has emphasized executive frameworks and preemption of conflicting state rules over new statutory mandates, limiting momentum for comprehensive safety legislation. Traders assign a 90% probability to no bill passing before 2027 because these factors—partisan differences on regulatory scope, competing priorities, and reliance on existing authorities—have prevented floor action despite multiple introductions and markups this year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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