Elevated early-season West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquitoes—1,284 positive pools through mid-August, nearly double last year's pace and widespread across all boroughs—drives trader focus on the 2026 neuroinvasive disease total, with only one confirmed resident case reported so far. Culex vector surveillance from the NYC Health Department shows transmission risk peaking through September, consistent with historical patterns where neuroinvasive cases (typically ~1 in 150 infections) average 16–31 annually in recent years but range widely from 6 to 46. Intensified larviciding and adulticiding operations, which can cut positive pools by over 85% in targeted areas, plus public bite prevention, temper upside scenarios above 49, while milder weather or lower spillover could keep totals below 20. Ongoing August–October surveillance and case reporting will clarify whether activity aligns with the tightly bunched 20–49 range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
Fewer than 20 34%
35 to 49 28%
20 to 34 22%
50 or more 14%
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2027
Fewer than 20
34%
20 to 34
22%
35 to 49
28%
50 or more
23%
Fewer than 20 34%
35 to 49 28%
20 to 34 22%
50 or more 14%
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2027
Fewer than 20
$55 Vol.
34%
20 to 34
$67 Vol.
22%
35 to 49
$454 Vol.
28%
50 or more
$221 Vol.
23%
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.Elevated early-season West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquitoes—1,284 positive pools through mid-August, nearly double last year's pace and widespread across all boroughs—drives trader focus on the 2026 neuroinvasive disease total, with only one confirmed resident case reported so far. Culex vector surveillance from the NYC Health Department shows transmission risk peaking through September, consistent with historical patterns where neuroinvasive cases (typically ~1 in 150 infections) average 16–31 annually in recent years but range widely from 6 to 46. Intensified larviciding and adulticiding operations, which can cut positive pools by over 85% in targeted areas, plus public bite prevention, temper upside scenarios above 49, while milder weather or lower spillover could keep totals below 20. Ongoing August–October surveillance and case reporting will clarify whether activity aligns with the tightly bunched 20–49 range.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$796End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.Elevated early-season West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquitoes—1,284 positive pools through mid-August, nearly double last year's pace and widespread across all boroughs—drives trader focus on the 2026 neuroinvasive disease total, with only one confirmed resident case reported so far. Culex vector surveillance from the NYC Health Department shows transmission risk peaking through September, consistent with historical patterns where neuroinvasive cases (typically ~1 in 150 infections) average 16–31 annually in recent years but range widely from 6 to 46. Intensified larviciding and adulticiding operations, which can cut positive pools by over 85% in targeted areas, plus public bite prevention, temper upside scenarios above 49, while milder weather or lower spillover could keep totals below 20. Ongoing August–October surveillance and case reporting will clarify whether activity aligns with the tightly bunched 20–49 range.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Volume
$796End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated early-season West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquitoes—1,284 positive pools through mid-August, nearly double last year's pace and widespread across all boroughs—drives trader focus on the 2026 neuroinvasive disease total, with only one confirmed resident case reported so far. Culex vector surveillance from the NYC Health Department shows transmission risk peaking through September, consistent with historical patterns where neuroinvasive cases (typically ~1 in 150 infections) average 16–31 annually in recent years but range widely from 6 to 46. Intensified larviciding and adulticiding operations, which can cut positive pools by over 85% in targeted areas, plus public bite prevention, temper upside scenarios above 49, while milder weather or lower spillover could keep totals below 20. Ongoing August–October surveillance and case reporting will clarify whether activity aligns with the tightly bunched 20–49 range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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