Democratic control of the House after the 2026 midterms represents the primary catalyst behind the 67% implied probability for impeachment before January 2029. Multiple resolutions have already been introduced in the current Congress, and over 70 Democratic lawmakers publicly called for articles or 25th Amendment invocation during the April 2026 Iran conflict following presidential statements on military targets. Recent reporting indicates House Democrats are prioritizing investigations into administration actions, donors, and election-related matters as groundwork, with impeachment remaining an option if evidence meets the threshold. While Senate conviction faces steep procedural and partisan hurdles, the House majority required for articles of impeachment could shift with midterm results, consistent with historical patterns when the opposition party gains control. Late developments such as scandals or sustained public pressure could further influence timing within the term.