Constitutional requirements for US statehood demand congressional approval, presidential signature, and typically a period as an organized territory—none of which apply to sovereign Venezuela. No diplomatic overtures, legislative proposals, or territorial negotiations have emerged between the two governments in recent years. Traders assign 97.7% probability to "No" because these formal barriers remain unchanged, with no polling shifts, executive actions, or international developments suggesting otherwise. Realistic scenarios that could still move the market include a formal Venezuelan request for annexation, a bilateral treaty ratified by both legislatures, or an unforeseen military or economic crisis prompting congressional consideration, though all remain remote given current bilateral relations and historical precedent for adding states.