Traders assign overwhelming probability to Venezuela remaining outside the United States because no credible political process supports admission as a state. Constitutional requirements demand congressional approval, presidential action, and consent from the territory itself, none of which exist for a sovereign foreign nation. Recent US-Venezuela relations center on sanctions policy, diplomatic recognition disputes, and migration issues rather than territorial expansion. No bills, executive orders, or official statements have advanced statehood discussions. The near-certain consensus reflects these structural barriers and the absence of any scheduled votes or negotiations that could alter the baseline. Remote scenarios that might shift odds include an unforeseen bilateral treaty, major geopolitical realignment, or constitutional amendment, though none are under active consideration.