Recent U.S. sanctions relief, bilateral export licenses, and Venezuelan regulatory reforms slashing the government's fiscal take to 20–35% have fueled a sharp rebound in crude output, with production climbing from sub-1.0 million barrels per day (bpd) levels in late 2025 to approximately 1.2 million bpd in July 2026 per government and OPEC secondary-source data. PDVSA targets 1.245 million bpd by end-August and 1.4 million bpd by year-end, supported by expanded diluent imports, Chevron-led joint ventures, and roughly half of current volumes flowing to U.S. Gulf Coast refiners. However, aging port infrastructure, limited rig availability, and persistent diluent constraints are creating export bottlenecks that may temper further gains despite strong trader capital backing implied probabilities. Key near-term catalysts include additional investment pacts and infrastructure rehabilitation milestones.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$182,767 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
1.2m
66%
1.3m
17%
1.4m
8%
1.5m
5%
1.7m
3%
2m
2%
$182,767 Vol.
1.2m
$10,620 Vol.
66%
1.3m
$7,790 Vol.
17%
1.4m
$19,774 Vol.
8%
1.5m
$9,753 Vol.
5%
1.7m
$58,866 Vol.
3%
2m
$16,326 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Recent U.S. sanctions relief, bilateral export licenses, and Venezuelan regulatory reforms slashing the government's fiscal take to 20–35% have fueled a sharp rebound in crude output, with production climbing from sub-1.0 million barrels per day (bpd) levels in late 2025 to approximately 1.2 million bpd in July 2026 per government and OPEC secondary-source data. PDVSA targets 1.245 million bpd by end-August and 1.4 million bpd by year-end, supported by expanded diluent imports, Chevron-led joint ventures, and roughly half of current volumes flowing to U.S. Gulf Coast refiners. However, aging port infrastructure, limited rig availability, and persistent diluent constraints are creating export bottlenecks that may temper further gains despite strong trader capital backing implied probabilities. Key near-term catalysts include additional investment pacts and infrastructure rehabilitation milestones.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volume
$182,767End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Recent U.S. sanctions relief, bilateral export licenses, and Venezuelan regulatory reforms slashing the government's fiscal take to 20–35% have fueled a sharp rebound in crude output, with production climbing from sub-1.0 million barrels per day (bpd) levels in late 2025 to approximately 1.2 million bpd in July 2026 per government and OPEC secondary-source data. PDVSA targets 1.245 million bpd by end-August and 1.4 million bpd by year-end, supported by expanded diluent imports, Chevron-led joint ventures, and roughly half of current volumes flowing to U.S. Gulf Coast refiners. However, aging port infrastructure, limited rig availability, and persistent diluent constraints are creating export bottlenecks that may temper further gains despite strong trader capital backing implied probabilities. Key near-term catalysts include additional investment pacts and infrastructure rehabilitation milestones.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Volume
$182,767End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. sanctions relief, bilateral export licenses, and Venezuelan regulatory reforms slashing the government's fiscal take to 20–35% have fueled a sharp rebound in crude output, with production climbing from sub-1.0 million barrels per day (bpd) levels in late 2025 to approximately 1.2 million bpd in July 2026 per government and OPEC secondary-source data. PDVSA targets 1.245 million bpd by end-August and 1.4 million bpd by year-end, supported by expanded diluent imports, Chevron-led joint ventures, and roughly half of current volumes flowing to U.S. Gulf Coast refiners. However, aging port infrastructure, limited rig availability, and persistent diluent constraints are creating export bottlenecks that may temper further gains despite strong trader capital backing implied probabilities. Key near-term catalysts include additional investment pacts and infrastructure rehabilitation milestones.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions