Brazilian Senate rules impose a stringent two-thirds threshold (54 of 81 votes) for convicting and removing an STF justice via impeachment, a bar never cleared in the court's history. Recent campaign rhetoric from right-leaning Senate candidates has highlighted the issue ahead of October 2026 elections, yet senior justice Gilmar Mendes and institutional analyses emphasize procedural and political obstacles, including limited initiation channels and insufficient projected support even under favorable seat shifts. No major verified developments in the past month have altered these structural constraints within the narrow window before 2027. Trader consensus reflects the combination of high institutional barriers and short timeline. Late-session Senate realignments or an unforeseen catalyst could still introduce limited volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$83,737 Vol.
$83,737 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
3% chance
$83,737 Vol.
$83,737 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazilian Senate rules impose a stringent two-thirds threshold (54 of 81 votes) for convicting and removing an STF justice via impeachment, a bar never cleared in the court's history. Recent campaign rhetoric from right-leaning Senate candidates has highlighted the issue ahead of October 2026 elections, yet senior justice Gilmar Mendes and institutional analyses emphasize procedural and political obstacles, including limited initiation channels and insufficient projected support even under favorable seat shifts. No major verified developments in the past month have altered these structural constraints within the narrow window before 2027. Trader consensus reflects the combination of high institutional barriers and short timeline. Late-session Senate realignments or an unforeseen catalyst could still introduce limited volatility.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volume
$83,737End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazilian Senate rules impose a stringent two-thirds threshold (54 of 81 votes) for convicting and removing an STF justice via impeachment, a bar never cleared in the court's history. Recent campaign rhetoric from right-leaning Senate candidates has highlighted the issue ahead of October 2026 elections, yet senior justice Gilmar Mendes and institutional analyses emphasize procedural and political obstacles, including limited initiation channels and insufficient projected support even under favorable seat shifts. No major verified developments in the past month have altered these structural constraints within the narrow window before 2027. Trader consensus reflects the combination of high institutional barriers and short timeline. Late-session Senate realignments or an unforeseen catalyst could still introduce limited volatility.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$83,737End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazilian Senate rules impose a stringent two-thirds threshold (54 of 81 votes) for convicting and removing an STF justice via impeachment, a bar never cleared in the court's history. Recent campaign rhetoric from right-leaning Senate candidates has highlighted the issue ahead of October 2026 elections, yet senior justice Gilmar Mendes and institutional analyses emphasize procedural and political obstacles, including limited initiation channels and insufficient projected support even under favorable seat shifts. No major verified developments in the past month have altered these structural constraints within the narrow window before 2027. Trader consensus reflects the combination of high institutional barriers and short timeline. Late-session Senate realignments or an unforeseen catalyst could still introduce limited volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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