Brazilian Senate rules and constitutional requirements create formidable barriers to removing any STF justice, as the process demands Senate acceptance of a complaint followed by a two-thirds vote of 54 senators for conviction on charges of responsibility. No justice has been impeached and removed in the republic's history, despite dozens of petitions filed over decades, most of which Senate leadership has shelved without advancement. Recent campaign rhetoric from opposition Senate candidates has highlighted the issue ahead of the 2026 elections, yet institutional actors including sitting justices have described such efforts as facing immense procedural and political hurdles. Traders' 96.7% implied probability for no removal before 2027 aligns with these longstanding patterns. A sudden major scandal or decisive post-election Senate realignment could theoretically open proceedings, though both remain remote within the narrow timeframe.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$83,766 Vol.
$83,766 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
3% chance
$83,766 Vol.
$83,766 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazilian Senate rules and constitutional requirements create formidable barriers to removing any STF justice, as the process demands Senate acceptance of a complaint followed by a two-thirds vote of 54 senators for conviction on charges of responsibility. No justice has been impeached and removed in the republic's history, despite dozens of petitions filed over decades, most of which Senate leadership has shelved without advancement. Recent campaign rhetoric from opposition Senate candidates has highlighted the issue ahead of the 2026 elections, yet institutional actors including sitting justices have described such efforts as facing immense procedural and political hurdles. Traders' 96.7% implied probability for no removal before 2027 aligns with these longstanding patterns. A sudden major scandal or decisive post-election Senate realignment could theoretically open proceedings, though both remain remote within the narrow timeframe.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volume
$83,766End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazilian Senate rules and constitutional requirements create formidable barriers to removing any STF justice, as the process demands Senate acceptance of a complaint followed by a two-thirds vote of 54 senators for conviction on charges of responsibility. No justice has been impeached and removed in the republic's history, despite dozens of petitions filed over decades, most of which Senate leadership has shelved without advancement. Recent campaign rhetoric from opposition Senate candidates has highlighted the issue ahead of the 2026 elections, yet institutional actors including sitting justices have described such efforts as facing immense procedural and political hurdles. Traders' 96.7% implied probability for no removal before 2027 aligns with these longstanding patterns. A sudden major scandal or decisive post-election Senate realignment could theoretically open proceedings, though both remain remote within the narrow timeframe.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$83,766End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazilian Senate rules and constitutional requirements create formidable barriers to removing any STF justice, as the process demands Senate acceptance of a complaint followed by a two-thirds vote of 54 senators for conviction on charges of responsibility. No justice has been impeached and removed in the republic's history, despite dozens of petitions filed over decades, most of which Senate leadership has shelved without advancement. Recent campaign rhetoric from opposition Senate candidates has highlighted the issue ahead of the 2026 elections, yet institutional actors including sitting justices have described such efforts as facing immense procedural and political hurdles. Traders' 96.7% implied probability for no removal before 2027 aligns with these longstanding patterns. A sudden major scandal or decisive post-election Senate realignment could theoretically open proceedings, though both remain remote within the narrow timeframe.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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