Incumbent Republican Eli Crane holds a clear edge in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. The vast northeastern district, encompassing rural counties, Flagstaff, Prescott, and portions of the Navajo Nation, has leaned Republican in recent cycles, with Crane defeating the same Democratic opponent, former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez, by nine points in 2024. Both candidates advanced unopposed through the July 21 primaries, setting up a rematch in a seat rated Likely Republican by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Crane benefits from incumbency and a Trump endorsement, while Nez’s fundraising has narrowed gaps in some Democratic-leaning areas but has not shifted the overall positioning. Limited post-primary polling and the absence of major late-breaking developments have kept probabilities stable ahead of the fall campaign.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-02 House Election Winner
AZ-02 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
64%
Democratic Party
37%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$985 Vol.
64%
Democratic Party
$335 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Eli Crane holds a clear edge in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. The vast northeastern district, encompassing rural counties, Flagstaff, Prescott, and portions of the Navajo Nation, has leaned Republican in recent cycles, with Crane defeating the same Democratic opponent, former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez, by nine points in 2024. Both candidates advanced unopposed through the July 21 primaries, setting up a rematch in a seat rated Likely Republican by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Crane benefits from incumbency and a Trump endorsement, while Nez’s fundraising has narrowed gaps in some Democratic-leaning areas but has not shifted the overall positioning. Limited post-primary polling and the absence of major late-breaking developments have kept probabilities stable ahead of the fall campaign.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
Volume
$1,320End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Eli Crane holds a clear edge in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. The vast northeastern district, encompassing rural counties, Flagstaff, Prescott, and portions of the Navajo Nation, has leaned Republican in recent cycles, with Crane defeating the same Democratic opponent, former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez, by nine points in 2024. Both candidates advanced unopposed through the July 21 primaries, setting up a rematch in a seat rated Likely Republican by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Crane benefits from incumbency and a Trump endorsement, while Nez’s fundraising has narrowed gaps in some Democratic-leaning areas but has not shifted the overall positioning. Limited post-primary polling and the absence of major late-breaking developments have kept probabilities stable ahead of the fall campaign.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$1,320End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Eli Crane holds a clear edge in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. The vast northeastern district, encompassing rural counties, Flagstaff, Prescott, and portions of the Navajo Nation, has leaned Republican in recent cycles, with Crane defeating the same Democratic opponent, former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez, by nine points in 2024. Both candidates advanced unopposed through the July 21 primaries, setting up a rematch in a seat rated Likely Republican by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Crane benefits from incumbency and a Trump endorsement, while Nez’s fundraising has narrowed gaps in some Democratic-leaning areas but has not shifted the overall positioning. Limited post-primary polling and the absence of major late-breaking developments have kept probabilities stable ahead of the fall campaign.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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