Incumbent Democrat Yassamin Ansari holds a commanding position in Arizona’s 3rd congressional district, a majority-Latino area centered in downtown and western Phoenix, where she captured roughly 71 percent in 2024. July 2026 primaries confirmed her unopposed Democratic nomination while Republican contenders remained limited to write-ins and low-profile entrants. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic based on the district’s established partisan lean, historical voting patterns, and absence of competitive polling or major campaign activity since the primaries. Trader consensus at 98 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural factors. Late-cycle national shifts, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals remain the primary scenarios that could still alter the outcome before the November 2026 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-03 House Election Winner
AZ-03 House Election Winner
$50,401 Vol.
$50,401 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
1%
$50,401 Vol.
$50,401 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$31,531 Vol.
98%
Republican Party
$18,869 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Yassamin Ansari holds a commanding position in Arizona’s 3rd congressional district, a majority-Latino area centered in downtown and western Phoenix, where she captured roughly 71 percent in 2024. July 2026 primaries confirmed her unopposed Democratic nomination while Republican contenders remained limited to write-ins and low-profile entrants. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic based on the district’s established partisan lean, historical voting patterns, and absence of competitive polling or major campaign activity since the primaries. Trader consensus at 98 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural factors. Late-cycle national shifts, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals remain the primary scenarios that could still alter the outcome before the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$50,401End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Yassamin Ansari holds a commanding position in Arizona’s 3rd congressional district, a majority-Latino area centered in downtown and western Phoenix, where she captured roughly 71 percent in 2024. July 2026 primaries confirmed her unopposed Democratic nomination while Republican contenders remained limited to write-ins and low-profile entrants. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic based on the district’s established partisan lean, historical voting patterns, and absence of competitive polling or major campaign activity since the primaries. Trader consensus at 98 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural factors. Late-cycle national shifts, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals remain the primary scenarios that could still alter the outcome before the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$50,401End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Yassamin Ansari holds a commanding position in Arizona’s 3rd congressional district, a majority-Latino area centered in downtown and western Phoenix, where she captured roughly 71 percent in 2024. July 2026 primaries confirmed her unopposed Democratic nomination while Republican contenders remained limited to write-ins and low-profile entrants. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic based on the district’s established partisan lean, historical voting patterns, and absence of competitive polling or major campaign activity since the primaries. Trader consensus at 98 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural factors. Late-cycle national shifts, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals remain the primary scenarios that could still alter the outcome before the November 2026 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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