Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton’s reelection bid in Arizona’s 4th congressional district reflects the seat’s D+4 partisan lean and his established fundraising and name recognition after victories in 2022 and 2024. Stanton consolidated Democratic support by defeating progressive challenger Kai Newkirk in the July 21 primary by roughly two-to-one, while Republican Zuhdi Jasser advanced unopposed. Election analysts rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s urban and suburban composition in Maricopa County. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats incorporates these structural advantages alongside limited recent polling and the absence of major district-specific disruptions. A substantial national Republican surge, unexpected developments affecting Stanton, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would need to overcome the district’s underlying partisan baseline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-04 House Election Winner
AZ-04 House Election Winner
$32,456 Vol.
$32,456 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
7%
$32,456 Vol.
$32,456 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$25,617 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$6,839 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton’s reelection bid in Arizona’s 4th congressional district reflects the seat’s D+4 partisan lean and his established fundraising and name recognition after victories in 2022 and 2024. Stanton consolidated Democratic support by defeating progressive challenger Kai Newkirk in the July 21 primary by roughly two-to-one, while Republican Zuhdi Jasser advanced unopposed. Election analysts rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s urban and suburban composition in Maricopa County. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats incorporates these structural advantages alongside limited recent polling and the absence of major district-specific disruptions. A substantial national Republican surge, unexpected developments affecting Stanton, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would need to overcome the district’s underlying partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$32,456End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton’s reelection bid in Arizona’s 4th congressional district reflects the seat’s D+4 partisan lean and his established fundraising and name recognition after victories in 2022 and 2024. Stanton consolidated Democratic support by defeating progressive challenger Kai Newkirk in the July 21 primary by roughly two-to-one, while Republican Zuhdi Jasser advanced unopposed. Election analysts rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s urban and suburban composition in Maricopa County. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats incorporates these structural advantages alongside limited recent polling and the absence of major district-specific disruptions. A substantial national Republican surge, unexpected developments affecting Stanton, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would need to overcome the district’s underlying partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,456End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton’s reelection bid in Arizona’s 4th congressional district reflects the seat’s D+4 partisan lean and his established fundraising and name recognition after victories in 2022 and 2024. Stanton consolidated Democratic support by defeating progressive challenger Kai Newkirk in the July 21 primary by roughly two-to-one, while Republican Zuhdi Jasser advanced unopposed. Election analysts rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s urban and suburban composition in Maricopa County. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats incorporates these structural advantages alongside limited recent polling and the absence of major district-specific disruptions. A substantial national Republican surge, unexpected developments affecting Stanton, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would need to overcome the district’s underlying partisan baseline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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