Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, with traders assigning her party a 94.5% implied probability of victory. The district’s D+8 Partisan Voter Index, rooted in recent presidential results, combined with Dean’s established incumbency and unopposed Democratic primary, underpins the market consensus. Republican nominee Aurora Stuski faces structural headwinds in a seat rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters. Potential shifts could arise from late-cycle national political realignments, turnout surges in suburban Montgomery County precincts, or unforeseen candidate-specific developments, though no such catalysts have emerged in recent months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPA-04 House Election Winner
PA-04 House Election Winner
$19,235 Vol.
$19,235 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$19,235 Vol.
$19,235 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$6,741 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$12,495 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, with traders assigning her party a 94.5% implied probability of victory. The district’s D+8 Partisan Voter Index, rooted in recent presidential results, combined with Dean’s established incumbency and unopposed Democratic primary, underpins the market consensus. Republican nominee Aurora Stuski faces structural headwinds in a seat rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters. Potential shifts could arise from late-cycle national political realignments, turnout surges in suburban Montgomery County precincts, or unforeseen candidate-specific developments, though no such catalysts have emerged in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$19,235End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, with traders assigning her party a 94.5% implied probability of victory. The district’s D+8 Partisan Voter Index, rooted in recent presidential results, combined with Dean’s established incumbency and unopposed Democratic primary, underpins the market consensus. Republican nominee Aurora Stuski faces structural headwinds in a seat rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters. Potential shifts could arise from late-cycle national political realignments, turnout surges in suburban Montgomery County precincts, or unforeseen candidate-specific developments, though no such catalysts have emerged in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,235End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, with traders assigning her party a 94.5% implied probability of victory. The district’s D+8 Partisan Voter Index, rooted in recent presidential results, combined with Dean’s established incumbency and unopposed Democratic primary, underpins the market consensus. Republican nominee Aurora Stuski faces structural headwinds in a seat rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters. Potential shifts could arise from late-cycle national political realignments, turnout surges in suburban Montgomery County precincts, or unforeseen candidate-specific developments, though no such catalysts have emerged in recent months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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