Milena Quiroga Romero leads trader probabilities at 45.5% for the 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial race, ahead of Manuel Cota Cárdenas at 22.9% and Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias at 9.5%, reflecting her consistent edge in Morena internal surveys and stronger name recognition as former La Paz mayor. Morena’s alliance holds a statewide polling advantage of roughly 39-42% intention to vote versus the PAN’s 19-30%, yet the contest remains tight because internal party selections are unresolved more than ten months before the June 2027 election and multiple aspirants within each bloc retain comparable local support. Recent activity—including Quiroga’s statewide tours, alliance-building, and emphasis on water, security, and mobility results—has reinforced her positioning, while PAN preferences continue to consolidate around Pelayo. Further separation is likely once Morena and PAN finalize nominees and head-to-head polling intensifies.