Berlin State Election: AfD Vote Share?

17-20% 55%

14-17% 30%

20%+ 14%

<14% 8%

NEW

Sep 20, 2026

<14%

$363 Vol.

14-17%

$40 Vol.

30%

17-20%

$404 Vol.

55%

20%+

$58 Vol.

14%

17-20% 55%

14-17% 30%

20%+ 14%

<14% 8%

NEW

Sep 20, 2026

<14%

$363 Vol.

14-17%

$40 Vol.

30%

17-20%

$404 Vol.

55%

20%+

$58 Vol.

14%

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

Will SPD win between 10% and 13% of all valid second votes?

40%

Will CDU win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?

42%

Will Grüne win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?

46%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Berlin State Election: AfD Vote Share?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "17-20%" at 55%, followed by "14-17%" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 55¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Berlin State Election: AfD Vote Share?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 20, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Berlin State Election: AfD Vote Share?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Berlin State Election: AfD Vote Share?" is "17-20%" at 55%, meaning the market assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "14-17%" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Berlin State Election: AfD Vote Share?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Berlin State Election: AfD Vote Share?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “Berlin State Election: AfD Vote Share?” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Berlin State Election: AfD Vote Share?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 55¢ for "17-20%" in the "Berlin State Election: AfD Vote Share?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 55% chance that "17-20%" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 55¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 45¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Berlin State Election: AfD Vote Share?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Sep 20, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Berlin State Election: AfD Vote Share?" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Berlin State Election: AfD Vote Share?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Berlin State Election: AfD Vote Share?

Berlin State Election: AfD Vote Share?

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