**Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a strong position in California's 13th congressional district following his narrow 2024 victory and the effects of Proposition 50 redistricting.** The updated map, which incorporates more of Stockton and shifts the district's partisan lean toward Democrats (around D+6 in baseline estimates), has consolidated Democratic advantages in voter registration and turnout patterns across San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, and Fresno counties. Gray advanced comfortably through the June 2, 2026, top-two primary with 42% of the vote, facing Republican Kevin Lincoln (former Stockton mayor) in the November general election. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Lean or Tilt Democratic, citing Gray's incumbency, fundraising edge, and the district's agricultural Central Valley demographics, where Democratic performance has stabilized despite historical competitiveness. These factors underpin the market's heavy Democratic consensus, with limited recent catalysts to shift Republican prospects absent major national or local developments before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-13 House Election Winner
CA-13 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
90%
Republican Party
11%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$3,745 Vol.
90%
Republican Party
$3,221 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a strong position in California's 13th congressional district following his narrow 2024 victory and the effects of Proposition 50 redistricting.** The updated map, which incorporates more of Stockton and shifts the district's partisan lean toward Democrats (around D+6 in baseline estimates), has consolidated Democratic advantages in voter registration and turnout patterns across San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, and Fresno counties. Gray advanced comfortably through the June 2, 2026, top-two primary with 42% of the vote, facing Republican Kevin Lincoln (former Stockton mayor) in the November general election. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Lean or Tilt Democratic, citing Gray's incumbency, fundraising edge, and the district's agricultural Central Valley demographics, where Democratic performance has stabilized despite historical competitiveness. These factors underpin the market's heavy Democratic consensus, with limited recent catalysts to shift Republican prospects absent major national or local developments before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ET
Volume
$6,966End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a strong position in California's 13th congressional district following his narrow 2024 victory and the effects of Proposition 50 redistricting.** The updated map, which incorporates more of Stockton and shifts the district's partisan lean toward Democrats (around D+6 in baseline estimates), has consolidated Democratic advantages in voter registration and turnout patterns across San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, and Fresno counties. Gray advanced comfortably through the June 2, 2026, top-two primary with 42% of the vote, facing Republican Kevin Lincoln (former Stockton mayor) in the November general election. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Lean or Tilt Democratic, citing Gray's incumbency, fundraising edge, and the district's agricultural Central Valley demographics, where Democratic performance has stabilized despite historical competitiveness. These factors underpin the market's heavy Democratic consensus, with limited recent catalysts to shift Republican prospects absent major national or local developments before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$6,966End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a strong position in California's 13th congressional district following his narrow 2024 victory and the effects of Proposition 50 redistricting.** The updated map, which incorporates more of Stockton and shifts the district's partisan lean toward Democrats (around D+6 in baseline estimates), has consolidated Democratic advantages in voter registration and turnout patterns across San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, and Fresno counties. Gray advanced comfortably through the June 2, 2026, top-two primary with 42% of the vote, facing Republican Kevin Lincoln (former Stockton mayor) in the November general election. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Lean or Tilt Democratic, citing Gray's incumbency, fundraising edge, and the district's agricultural Central Valley demographics, where Democratic performance has stabilized despite historical competitiveness. These factors underpin the market's heavy Democratic consensus, with limited recent catalysts to shift Republican prospects absent major national or local developments before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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