Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes, who won reelection with 61% in 2024, faces Republican Michael Goldstein in Connecticut’s 4th district on November 3, 2026. The southwestern district covering Bridgeport, Stamford, and Greenwich maintains a consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Himes ran unopposed in the August 11 Democratic primary while raising over $1.3 million with substantial cash reserves; Goldstein, the 2024 GOP nominee, secured the Republican nod after defeating Daniel Miressi but holds limited fundraising. These structural advantages and low-competition dynamics underpin the current trader consensus favoring Democrats at 96%. A major scandal, health event, or unexpected national partisan shift could narrow the margin, though the district’s established voting patterns limit such prospects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCT-04 House Election Winner
CT-04 House Election Winner
$47,316 Vol.
$47,316 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
4%
$47,316 Vol.
$47,316 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$21,773 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$25,543 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes, who won reelection with 61% in 2024, faces Republican Michael Goldstein in Connecticut’s 4th district on November 3, 2026. The southwestern district covering Bridgeport, Stamford, and Greenwich maintains a consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Himes ran unopposed in the August 11 Democratic primary while raising over $1.3 million with substantial cash reserves; Goldstein, the 2024 GOP nominee, secured the Republican nod after defeating Daniel Miressi but holds limited fundraising. These structural advantages and low-competition dynamics underpin the current trader consensus favoring Democrats at 96%. A major scandal, health event, or unexpected national partisan shift could narrow the margin, though the district’s established voting patterns limit such prospects.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$47,316End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes, who won reelection with 61% in 2024, faces Republican Michael Goldstein in Connecticut’s 4th district on November 3, 2026. The southwestern district covering Bridgeport, Stamford, and Greenwich maintains a consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Himes ran unopposed in the August 11 Democratic primary while raising over $1.3 million with substantial cash reserves; Goldstein, the 2024 GOP nominee, secured the Republican nod after defeating Daniel Miressi but holds limited fundraising. These structural advantages and low-competition dynamics underpin the current trader consensus favoring Democrats at 96%. A major scandal, health event, or unexpected national partisan shift could narrow the margin, though the district’s established voting patterns limit such prospects.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$47,316End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes, who won reelection with 61% in 2024, faces Republican Michael Goldstein in Connecticut’s 4th district on November 3, 2026. The southwestern district covering Bridgeport, Stamford, and Greenwich maintains a consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Himes ran unopposed in the August 11 Democratic primary while raising over $1.3 million with substantial cash reserves; Goldstein, the 2024 GOP nominee, secured the Republican nod after defeating Daniel Miressi but holds limited fundraising. These structural advantages and low-competition dynamics underpin the current trader consensus favoring Democrats at 96%. A major scandal, health event, or unexpected national partisan shift could narrow the margin, though the district’s established voting patterns limit such prospects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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