Incumbent Republican Gus Bilirakis faces Democratic nominee Kimberly Overman and independent Branden Scrivener in Florida's 12th congressional district general election on November 3, 2026. Bilirakis advanced unopposed after the Republican primary was canceled, while Overman prevailed in the Democratic primary on August 18. The Tampa Bay-area seat carries a strong Republican lean, reflected in its Solid R rating from the Cook Political Report and an adjusted partisan voting index favoring the GOP. Traders assign the Republican Party an 89.5% implied probability due to incumbency advantages, consistent district voting patterns, and limited opposition strength in a midterm cycle. No major recent shifts have altered this positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-12 House Election Winner
FL-12 House Election Winner
$55,931 Vol.
$55,931 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
90%
Democratic Party
10%
$55,931 Vol.
$55,931 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$22,124 Vol.
90%
Democratic Party
$33,808 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Gus Bilirakis faces Democratic nominee Kimberly Overman and independent Branden Scrivener in Florida's 12th congressional district general election on November 3, 2026. Bilirakis advanced unopposed after the Republican primary was canceled, while Overman prevailed in the Democratic primary on August 18. The Tampa Bay-area seat carries a strong Republican lean, reflected in its Solid R rating from the Cook Political Report and an adjusted partisan voting index favoring the GOP. Traders assign the Republican Party an 89.5% implied probability due to incumbency advantages, consistent district voting patterns, and limited opposition strength in a midterm cycle. No major recent shifts have altered this positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Volume
$55,931End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Gus Bilirakis faces Democratic nominee Kimberly Overman and independent Branden Scrivener in Florida's 12th congressional district general election on November 3, 2026. Bilirakis advanced unopposed after the Republican primary was canceled, while Overman prevailed in the Democratic primary on August 18. The Tampa Bay-area seat carries a strong Republican lean, reflected in its Solid R rating from the Cook Political Report and an adjusted partisan voting index favoring the GOP. Traders assign the Republican Party an 89.5% implied probability due to incumbency advantages, consistent district voting patterns, and limited opposition strength in a midterm cycle. No major recent shifts have altered this positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$55,931End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Gus Bilirakis faces Democratic nominee Kimberly Overman and independent Branden Scrivener in Florida's 12th congressional district general election on November 3, 2026. Bilirakis advanced unopposed after the Republican primary was canceled, while Overman prevailed in the Democratic primary on August 18. The Tampa Bay-area seat carries a strong Republican lean, reflected in its Solid R rating from the Cook Political Report and an adjusted partisan voting index favoring the GOP. Traders assign the Republican Party an 89.5% implied probability due to incumbency advantages, consistent district voting patterns, and limited opposition strength in a midterm cycle. No major recent shifts have altered this positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions