Incumbent Rep. Jared Moskowitz held a commanding lead in the Florida 25th District Democratic primary due to his established name recognition as a two-term congressman, superior fundraising totals exceeding $2.9 million, and record of bipartisan work including with state Republican leadership. Redistricting placed him in the new seat, where his moderate positioning contrasted with challenger Oliver Larkin's profile as a younger progressive activist and DSA-endorsed union organizer. Pre-primary polling and candidate resources reinforced trader expectations of a wide margin. Actual results showed Moskowitz at 63.5% to Larkin's 36.5%, confirming the outcome. Late developments such as a major scandal, unexpected turnout shift, or polling error could have narrowed the gap, though none emerged to alter the result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMoskowitz 25%+ 98.6%
Moskowitz 20–25% <1%
Moskowitz 15–20% <1%
Moskowitz 10–15% <1%
$49,671 Vol.
$49,671 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Moskowitz 25%+
99%
Moskowitz 20–25%
<1%
Moskowitz 15–20%
<1%
Moskowitz 10–15%
<1%
Moskowitz 5–10%
<1%
Moskowitz <5%
<1%
Larkin <5%
<1%
Larkin 5–10%
<1%
Larkin 10–15%
<1%
Larkin 15–20%
<1%
Larkin 20–25%
<1%
Larkin 25%+
<1%
Moskowitz 25%+ 98.6%
Moskowitz 20–25% <1%
Moskowitz 15–20% <1%
Moskowitz 10–15% <1%
$49,671 Vol.
$49,671 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Moskowitz 25%+
$42,004 Vol.
99%
Moskowitz 20–25%
$4,140 Vol.
<1%
Moskowitz 15–20%
$593 Vol.
<1%
Moskowitz 10–15%
$373 Vol.
<1%
Moskowitz 5–10%
$377 Vol.
<1%
Moskowitz <5%
$430 Vol.
<1%
Larkin <5%
$439 Vol.
<1%
Larkin 5–10%
$230 Vol.
<1%
Larkin 10–15%
$285 Vol.
<1%
Larkin 15–20%
$241 Vol.
<1%
Larkin 20–25%
$278 Vol.
<1%
Larkin 25%+
$280 Vol.
<1%
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Incumbent Rep. Jared Moskowitz held a commanding lead in the Florida 25th District Democratic primary due to his established name recognition as a two-term congressman, superior fundraising totals exceeding $2.9 million, and record of bipartisan work including with state Republican leadership. Redistricting placed him in the new seat, where his moderate positioning contrasted with challenger Oliver Larkin's profile as a younger progressive activist and DSA-endorsed union organizer. Pre-primary polling and candidate resources reinforced trader expectations of a wide margin. Actual results showed Moskowitz at 63.5% to Larkin's 36.5%, confirming the outcome. Late developments such as a major scandal, unexpected turnout shift, or polling error could have narrowed the gap, though none emerged to alter the result.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 5:57 PM ET
Volume
$49,671End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Incumbent Rep. Jared Moskowitz held a commanding lead in the Florida 25th District Democratic primary due to his established name recognition as a two-term congressman, superior fundraising totals exceeding $2.9 million, and record of bipartisan work including with state Republican leadership. Redistricting placed him in the new seat, where his moderate positioning contrasted with challenger Oliver Larkin's profile as a younger progressive activist and DSA-endorsed union organizer. Pre-primary polling and candidate resources reinforced trader expectations of a wide margin. Actual results showed Moskowitz at 63.5% to Larkin's 36.5%, confirming the outcome. Late developments such as a major scandal, unexpected turnout shift, or polling error could have narrowed the gap, though none emerged to alter the result.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$49,671End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Rep. Jared Moskowitz held a commanding lead in the Florida 25th District Democratic primary due to his established name recognition as a two-term congressman, superior fundraising totals exceeding $2.9 million, and record of bipartisan work including with state Republican leadership. Redistricting placed him in the new seat, where his moderate positioning contrasted with challenger Oliver Larkin's profile as a younger progressive activist and DSA-endorsed union organizer. Pre-primary polling and candidate resources reinforced trader expectations of a wide margin. Actual results showed Moskowitz at 63.5% to Larkin's 36.5%, confirming the outcome. Late developments such as a major scandal, unexpected turnout shift, or polling error could have narrowed the gap, though none emerged to alter the result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions