Recent progress results from the August 21 by-election for the Wairarapa constituency on the Greater Wellington Regional Council show John Hart holding a decisive lead after roughly 90 percent of votes were counted under the single transferable vote system. His established local profile in Masterton, prior candidacy experience, and emphasis on regional infrastructure and flood resilience issues have positioned him ahead of the field of independents. With voting now closed, trader consensus at 95.6 percent for Hart reflects the strength of these preliminary tallies. Official final results could still shift modestly if remaining ballots or preference distributions alter the outcome, though such a reversal appears unlikely given the current margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGreater Wellington Wairarapa By-Election Winner
John Hart 95.7%
Michael Birch 1.0%
Colin Olds 1.0%
Amber Craig 1.0%
$4,085 Vol.
$4,085 Vol.

John Hart
96%

Michael Birch
1%

Colin Olds
1%

Amber Craig
1%

Jill Greathead
1%

Alistair Plimmer
1%
John Hart 95.7%
Michael Birch 1.0%
Colin Olds 1.0%
Amber Craig 1.0%
$4,085 Vol.
$4,085 Vol.

John Hart
96%

Michael Birch
1%

Colin Olds
1%

Amber Craig
1%

Jill Greathead
1%

Alistair Plimmer
1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Wairarapa constituency by-election for the Greater Wellington Regional Council.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by the Greater Wellington Regional Council (https://www.gw.govt.nz/).
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 8:16 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Wairarapa constituency by-election for the Greater Wellington Regional Council.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by the Greater Wellington Regional Council (https://www.gw.govt.nz/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent progress results from the August 21 by-election for the Wairarapa constituency on the Greater Wellington Regional Council show John Hart holding a decisive lead after roughly 90 percent of votes were counted under the single transferable vote system. His established local profile in Masterton, prior candidacy experience, and emphasis on regional infrastructure and flood resilience issues have positioned him ahead of the field of independents. With voting now closed, trader consensus at 95.6 percent for Hart reflects the strength of these preliminary tallies. Official final results could still shift modestly if remaining ballots or preference distributions alter the outcome, though such a reversal appears unlikely given the current margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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