**Forecast consensus from the National Weather Service and multiple models points to a high temperature in the upper 90s for Austin on September 5, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with light southeast winds and low precipitation chances.** This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 96-97°F (58%) and 98-99°F (41%), as official guidance settles near 97°F—several degrees above the long-term average high of roughly 94°F for the date. High humidity is expected to push heat index values above 100°F, though actual air temperature resolution depends on afternoon observations at standard reporting stations. No major frontal systems or tropical influences are altering the warm, stable late-summer pattern, keeping probabilities tightly clustered around these two bins. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through the morning will provide the final inputs before daily maximum readings are confirmed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on September 5?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 5?
96-97°F 58%
98-99°F 41%
94-95°F 4%
100-101°F 2%
$14,910 Vol.
$14,910 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
85°F or below
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
4%
96-97°F
58%
98-99°F
41%
100-101°F
2%
102-103°F
<1%
104°F or higher
<1%
96-97°F 58%
98-99°F 41%
94-95°F 4%
100-101°F 2%
$14,910 Vol.
$14,910 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
85°F or below
$1,416 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$943 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$201 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$309 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$1,031 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$2,326 Vol.
4%
96-97°F
$2,942 Vol.
58%
98-99°F
$2,833 Vol.
41%
100-101°F
$1,204 Vol.
2%
102-103°F
$952 Vol.
<1%
104°F or higher
$764 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from the National Weather Service and multiple models points to a high temperature in the upper 90s for Austin on September 5, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with light southeast winds and low precipitation chances.**
This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 96-97°F (58%) and 98-99°F (41%), as official guidance settles near 97°F—several degrees above the long-term average high of roughly 94°F for the date. High humidity is expected to push heat index values above 100°F, though actual air temperature resolution depends on afternoon observations at standard reporting stations. No major frontal systems or tropical influences are altering the warm, stable late-summer pattern, keeping probabilities tightly clustered around these two bins. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through the morning will provide the final inputs before daily maximum readings are confirmed.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$14,910End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from the National Weather Service and multiple models points to a high temperature in the upper 90s for Austin on September 5, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with light southeast winds and low precipitation chances.**
This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 96-97°F (58%) and 98-99°F (41%), as official guidance settles near 97°F—several degrees above the long-term average high of roughly 94°F for the date. High humidity is expected to push heat index values above 100°F, though actual air temperature resolution depends on afternoon observations at standard reporting stations. No major frontal systems or tropical influences are altering the warm, stable late-summer pattern, keeping probabilities tightly clustered around these two bins. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through the morning will provide the final inputs before daily maximum readings are confirmed.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,910End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from the National Weather Service and multiple models points to a high temperature in the upper 90s for Austin on September 5, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with light southeast winds and low precipitation chances.** This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 96-97°F (58%) and 98-99°F (41%), as official guidance settles near 97°F—several degrees above the long-term average high of roughly 94°F for the date. High humidity is expected to push heat index values above 100°F, though actual air temperature resolution depends on afternoon observations at standard reporting stations. No major frontal systems or tropical influences are altering the warm, stable late-summer pattern, keeping probabilities tightly clustered around these two bins. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through the morning will provide the final inputs before daily maximum readings are confirmed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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