**Latest National Weather Service and model guidance point to an overnight low in the mid-70s for Austin on September 5, 2026, with early-morning readings near 75–79 °F under partly cloudy skies and light southeast winds.** This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward the 72–73 °F bin, reflecting trader aggregation of short-range forecasts that incorporate current surface observations, dew-point trends, and minimal nocturnal cooling under the subtropical ridge. Supporting context includes the absence of any significant frontal passage or increased cloud cover that would enhance radiational cooling, consistent with climatological norms for early September (historical average low ~71 °F). Resolution hinges on the official minimum recorded at the primary Austin station (typically Austin-Bergstrom or Camp Mabry), so small variations in timing of the daily minimum or localized microclimate effects remain the main sources of residual uncertainty. A faster-than-expected shift in steering flow or unexpected boundary-layer moisture changes could push readings a degree or two lower, but current model consensus and real-time data limit the scope for outcomes below 70 °F.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Austin on September 5?
72-73°F 94%
68-69°F 70%
67°F or below 21%
70-71°F 12%
$6,580 Vol.
$6,580 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
67°F or below
21%
68-69°F
70%
70-71°F
12%
72-73°F
94%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86°F or higher
<1%
72-73°F 94%
68-69°F 70%
67°F or below 21%
70-71°F 12%
$6,580 Vol.
$6,580 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
67°F or below
$12 Vol.
21%
68-69°F
$12 Vol.
70%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
12%
72-73°F
$152 Vol.
94%
74-75°F
$5,859 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$176 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$94 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$109 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$47 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$47 Vol.
<1%
86°F or higher
$72 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest National Weather Service and model guidance point to an overnight low in the mid-70s for Austin on September 5, 2026, with early-morning readings near 75–79 °F under partly cloudy skies and light southeast winds.** This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward the 72–73 °F bin, reflecting trader aggregation of short-range forecasts that incorporate current surface observations, dew-point trends, and minimal nocturnal cooling under the subtropical ridge.
Supporting context includes the absence of any significant frontal passage or increased cloud cover that would enhance radiational cooling, consistent with climatological norms for early September (historical average low ~71 °F). Resolution hinges on the official minimum recorded at the primary Austin station (typically Austin-Bergstrom or Camp Mabry), so small variations in timing of the daily minimum or localized microclimate effects remain the main sources of residual uncertainty. A faster-than-expected shift in steering flow or unexpected boundary-layer moisture changes could push readings a degree or two lower, but current model consensus and real-time data limit the scope for outcomes below 70 °F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$6,580End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest National Weather Service and model guidance point to an overnight low in the mid-70s for Austin on September 5, 2026, with early-morning readings near 75–79 °F under partly cloudy skies and light southeast winds.** This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward the 72–73 °F bin, reflecting trader aggregation of short-range forecasts that incorporate current surface observations, dew-point trends, and minimal nocturnal cooling under the subtropical ridge.
Supporting context includes the absence of any significant frontal passage or increased cloud cover that would enhance radiational cooling, consistent with climatological norms for early September (historical average low ~71 °F). Resolution hinges on the official minimum recorded at the primary Austin station (typically Austin-Bergstrom or Camp Mabry), so small variations in timing of the daily minimum or localized microclimate effects remain the main sources of residual uncertainty. A faster-than-expected shift in steering flow or unexpected boundary-layer moisture changes could push readings a degree or two lower, but current model consensus and real-time data limit the scope for outcomes below 70 °F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,580End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest National Weather Service and model guidance point to an overnight low in the mid-70s for Austin on September 5, 2026, with early-morning readings near 75–79 °F under partly cloudy skies and light southeast winds.** This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward the 72–73 °F bin, reflecting trader aggregation of short-range forecasts that incorporate current surface observations, dew-point trends, and minimal nocturnal cooling under the subtropical ridge. Supporting context includes the absence of any significant frontal passage or increased cloud cover that would enhance radiational cooling, consistent with climatological norms for early September (historical average low ~71 °F). Resolution hinges on the official minimum recorded at the primary Austin station (typically Austin-Bergstrom or Camp Mabry), so small variations in timing of the daily minimum or localized microclimate effects remain the main sources of residual uncertainty. A faster-than-expected shift in steering flow or unexpected boundary-layer moisture changes could push readings a degree or two lower, but current model consensus and real-time data limit the scope for outcomes below 70 °F.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions