**Forecast consensus points to a minimum temperature in the mid-70s for Austin on September 6, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 74-75°F outcome at 38.5% implied probability.** Multiple models show overnight lows of 75–78°F under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, southerly winds of 5–10 mph, and elevated dew points that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This represents a departure above the long-term average low of ~70.6°F, sustained by a persistent warm air mass and lack of frontal passages or significant cloud cover to enhance cooling. Slight afternoon thunderstorm chances introduce minor variability in timing and exact readings, which explains the close clustering of probabilities across the 72–77°F bins. Official National Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs remain the key upcoming data points that could shift trader positioning before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Austin on September 6?
80-81°F 49%
82-83°F 49%
67°F or below 47%
74-75°F 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
67°F or below
47%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
26%
72-73°F
29%
74-75°F
39%
76-77°F
31%
78-79°F
24%
80-81°F
49%
82-83°F
49%
84-85°F
16%
86°F or higher
12%
80-81°F 49%
82-83°F 49%
67°F or below 47%
74-75°F 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
67°F or below
$0 Vol.
47%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
3%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
26%
72-73°F
$2 Vol.
29%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
39%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
31%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
24%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
49%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
49%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
16%
86°F or higher
$0 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus points to a minimum temperature in the mid-70s for Austin on September 6, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 74-75°F outcome at 38.5% implied probability.** Multiple models show overnight lows of 75–78°F under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, southerly winds of 5–10 mph, and elevated dew points that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This represents a departure above the long-term average low of ~70.6°F, sustained by a persistent warm air mass and lack of frontal passages or significant cloud cover to enhance cooling. Slight afternoon thunderstorm chances introduce minor variability in timing and exact readings, which explains the close clustering of probabilities across the 72–77°F bins. Official National Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs remain the key upcoming data points that could shift trader positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$2End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus points to a minimum temperature in the mid-70s for Austin on September 6, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 74-75°F outcome at 38.5% implied probability.** Multiple models show overnight lows of 75–78°F under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, southerly winds of 5–10 mph, and elevated dew points that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This represents a departure above the long-term average low of ~70.6°F, sustained by a persistent warm air mass and lack of frontal passages or significant cloud cover to enhance cooling. Slight afternoon thunderstorm chances introduce minor variability in timing and exact readings, which explains the close clustering of probabilities across the 72–77°F bins. Official National Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs remain the key upcoming data points that could shift trader positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus points to a minimum temperature in the mid-70s for Austin on September 6, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 74-75°F outcome at 38.5% implied probability.** Multiple models show overnight lows of 75–78°F under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, southerly winds of 5–10 mph, and elevated dew points that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This represents a departure above the long-term average low of ~70.6°F, sustained by a persistent warm air mass and lack of frontal passages or significant cloud cover to enhance cooling. Slight afternoon thunderstorm chances introduce minor variability in timing and exact readings, which explains the close clustering of probabilities across the 72–77°F bins. Official National Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs remain the key upcoming data points that could shift trader positioning before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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