Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded a daily maximum of 31°C on September 4, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and light northwest winds that limited daytime heating. This aligns with regional model consensus and surface station data showing peak values near that threshold amid typical early-September subtropical moisture and instability. The near-certain market-implied probability for 31°C reflects verified instrumental readings rather than forecasts, though minor revisions could arise from final quality-controlled station averages or slight differences in measurement timing. No major data shifts occurred in the preceding 48 hours to alter this outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?
31°C 99.9%
30°C <1%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
$202,698 Vol.
$202,698 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
100%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
31°C 99.9%
30°C <1%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
$202,698 Vol.
$202,698 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
23°C or below
$16,110 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$214 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,388 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$2,013 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$10,242 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$15,319 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$29,398 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$32,203 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$46,941 Vol.
100%
32°C
$31,631 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$17,241 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded a daily maximum of 31°C on September 4, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and light northwest winds that limited daytime heating. This aligns with regional model consensus and surface station data showing peak values near that threshold amid typical early-September subtropical moisture and instability. The near-certain market-implied probability for 31°C reflects verified instrumental readings rather than forecasts, though minor revisions could arise from final quality-controlled station averages or slight differences in measurement timing. No major data shifts occurred in the preceding 48 hours to alter this outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$202,698End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded a daily maximum of 31°C on September 4, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and light northwest winds that limited daytime heating. This aligns with regional model consensus and surface station data showing peak values near that threshold amid typical early-September subtropical moisture and instability. The near-certain market-implied probability for 31°C reflects verified instrumental readings rather than forecasts, though minor revisions could arise from final quality-controlled station averages or slight differences in measurement timing. No major data shifts occurred in the preceding 48 hours to alter this outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$202,698End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded a daily maximum of 31°C on September 4, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and light northwest winds that limited daytime heating. This aligns with regional model consensus and surface station data showing peak values near that threshold amid typical early-September subtropical moisture and instability. The near-certain market-implied probability for 31°C reflects verified instrumental readings rather than forecasts, though minor revisions could arise from final quality-controlled station averages or slight differences in measurement timing. No major data shifts occurred in the preceding 48 hours to alter this outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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