Recent northerly wind shifts have introduced drier, cooler air masses to the New York City region after several days of higher humidity and highs near 84–87°F, moderating peak temperatures on September 5. National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models converge on a mostly sunny day with light north-northwest winds of 5–10 mph, which limits afternoon boundary-layer mixing and heating, aligning with early-September climatological averages near 80°F at LaGuardia Airport. This consensus positions the 80–81°F bin as the market leader at 67% implied probability, while the 26.5% odds on 78–79°F capture residual model spread on exact peak timing and minor observational adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on September 5?
Highest temperature in NYC on September 5?
80-81°F 61%
78-79°F 34%
82-83°F 5%
76-77°F 2%
$34,348 Vol.
$34,348 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
34%
80-81°F
61%
82-83°F
5%
84-85°F
2%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 61%
78-79°F 34%
82-83°F 5%
76-77°F 2%
$34,348 Vol.
$34,348 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
69°F or below
$1,661 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$174 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$638 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$5,753 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$6,138 Vol.
2%
78-79°F
$6,441 Vol.
34%
80-81°F
$5,075 Vol.
61%
82-83°F
$4,911 Vol.
5%
84-85°F
$1,778 Vol.
2%
86-87°F
$1,660 Vol.
<1%
88°F or higher
$120 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent northerly wind shifts have introduced drier, cooler air masses to the New York City region after several days of higher humidity and highs near 84–87°F, moderating peak temperatures on September 5. National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models converge on a mostly sunny day with light north-northwest winds of 5–10 mph, which limits afternoon boundary-layer mixing and heating, aligning with early-September climatological averages near 80°F at LaGuardia Airport. This consensus positions the 80–81°F bin as the market leader at 67% implied probability, while the 26.5% odds on 78–79°F capture residual model spread on exact peak timing and minor observational adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$34,348End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent northerly wind shifts have introduced drier, cooler air masses to the New York City region after several days of higher humidity and highs near 84–87°F, moderating peak temperatures on September 5. National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models converge on a mostly sunny day with light north-northwest winds of 5–10 mph, which limits afternoon boundary-layer mixing and heating, aligning with early-September climatological averages near 80°F at LaGuardia Airport. This consensus positions the 80–81°F bin as the market leader at 67% implied probability, while the 26.5% odds on 78–79°F capture residual model spread on exact peak timing and minor observational adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$34,348End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent northerly wind shifts have introduced drier, cooler air masses to the New York City region after several days of higher humidity and highs near 84–87°F, moderating peak temperatures on September 5. National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models converge on a mostly sunny day with light north-northwest winds of 5–10 mph, which limits afternoon boundary-layer mixing and heating, aligning with early-September climatological averages near 80°F at LaGuardia Airport. This consensus positions the 80–81°F bin as the market leader at 67% implied probability, while the 26.5% odds on 78–79°F capture residual model spread on exact peak timing and minor observational adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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