Mild overnight conditions under clear skies and light northerly winds have kept minimum temperatures in New York City near 70°F on September 5, 2026, aligning with the market’s 95% implied probability for the 70-71°F bin. Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and multiple models project a daily low in this narrow range, reflecting typical early-September climatology with no incoming cold front or significant radiative cooling expected. Trader consensus reflects the stability of these conditions through the overnight hours. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted surge in low-level moisture or unexpected cloud cover that reduces overnight heat loss, though current observations and model consensus make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on September 5?
Lowest temperature in NYC on September 5?
70-71°F 95%
68-69°F 6%
64-65°F 2%
66-67°F <1%
$8,458 Vol.
$8,458 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
61°F or below
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
2%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
6%
70-71°F
95%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 95%
68-69°F 6%
64-65°F 2%
66-67°F <1%
$8,458 Vol.
$8,458 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
61°F or below
$338 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$200 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$404 Vol.
2%
66-67°F
$598 Vol.
1%
68-69°F
$1,737 Vol.
6%
70-71°F
$2,479 Vol.
95%
72-73°F
$842 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$690 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$696 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$301 Vol.
<1%
80°F or higher
$175 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Mild overnight conditions under clear skies and light northerly winds have kept minimum temperatures in New York City near 70°F on September 5, 2026, aligning with the market’s 95% implied probability for the 70-71°F bin. Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and multiple models project a daily low in this narrow range, reflecting typical early-September climatology with no incoming cold front or significant radiative cooling expected. Trader consensus reflects the stability of these conditions through the overnight hours. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted surge in low-level moisture or unexpected cloud cover that reduces overnight heat loss, though current observations and model consensus make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$8,458End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Mild overnight conditions under clear skies and light northerly winds have kept minimum temperatures in New York City near 70°F on September 5, 2026, aligning with the market’s 95% implied probability for the 70-71°F bin. Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and multiple models project a daily low in this narrow range, reflecting typical early-September climatology with no incoming cold front or significant radiative cooling expected. Trader consensus reflects the stability of these conditions through the overnight hours. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted surge in low-level moisture or unexpected cloud cover that reduces overnight heat loss, though current observations and model consensus make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,458End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mild overnight conditions under clear skies and light northerly winds have kept minimum temperatures in New York City near 70°F on September 5, 2026, aligning with the market’s 95% implied probability for the 70-71°F bin. Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and multiple models project a daily low in this narrow range, reflecting typical early-September climatology with no incoming cold front or significant radiative cooling expected. Trader consensus reflects the stability of these conditions through the overnight hours. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted surge in low-level moisture or unexpected cloud cover that reduces overnight heat loss, though current observations and model consensus make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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