Recent forecasts from official and meteorological sources indicate Sao Paulo's maximum temperature on September 5 will likely peak near 22–24 °C under mostly cloudy skies with light rain and southerly winds, keeping readings close to or slightly below the long-term September average high of 23–24 °C. Model consensus shows limited diurnal warming due to persistent cloud cover and elevated humidity limiting insolation, while steering patterns from a passing frontal system suppress stronger heating. This uncertainty in exact peak timing and localized variations explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 21–24 °C, with lower odds on outliers reflecting historical rarity of extremes this early in spring. Updated model runs and real-time observations through the afternoon will refine the final recorded high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 5?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 5?
22°C 24%
23°C 24%
21°C 17%
24°C 15%
$25,266 Vol.
$25,266 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
3%
20°C
10%
21°C
17%
22°C
24%
23°C
24%
24°C
15%
25°C
13%
26°C
4%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
<1%
22°C 24%
23°C 24%
21°C 17%
24°C 15%
$25,266 Vol.
$25,266 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
18°C or below
$1,940 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,532 Vol.
3%
20°C
$1,575 Vol.
10%
21°C
$2,090 Vol.
17%
22°C
$2,036 Vol.
24%
23°C
$1,471 Vol.
24%
24°C
$1,738 Vol.
15%
25°C
$1,152 Vol.
13%
26°C
$618 Vol.
4%
27°C
$4,365 Vol.
1%
28°C or higher
$6,908 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from official and meteorological sources indicate Sao Paulo's maximum temperature on September 5 will likely peak near 22–24 °C under mostly cloudy skies with light rain and southerly winds, keeping readings close to or slightly below the long-term September average high of 23–24 °C. Model consensus shows limited diurnal warming due to persistent cloud cover and elevated humidity limiting insolation, while steering patterns from a passing frontal system suppress stronger heating. This uncertainty in exact peak timing and localized variations explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 21–24 °C, with lower odds on outliers reflecting historical rarity of extremes this early in spring. Updated model runs and real-time observations through the afternoon will refine the final recorded high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$25,266End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from official and meteorological sources indicate Sao Paulo's maximum temperature on September 5 will likely peak near 22–24 °C under mostly cloudy skies with light rain and southerly winds, keeping readings close to or slightly below the long-term September average high of 23–24 °C. Model consensus shows limited diurnal warming due to persistent cloud cover and elevated humidity limiting insolation, while steering patterns from a passing frontal system suppress stronger heating. This uncertainty in exact peak timing and localized variations explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 21–24 °C, with lower odds on outliers reflecting historical rarity of extremes this early in spring. Updated model runs and real-time observations through the afternoon will refine the final recorded high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25,266End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from official and meteorological sources indicate Sao Paulo's maximum temperature on September 5 will likely peak near 22–24 °C under mostly cloudy skies with light rain and southerly winds, keeping readings close to or slightly below the long-term September average high of 23–24 °C. Model consensus shows limited diurnal warming due to persistent cloud cover and elevated humidity limiting insolation, while steering patterns from a passing frontal system suppress stronger heating. This uncertainty in exact peak timing and localized variations explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 21–24 °C, with lower odds on outliers reflecting historical rarity of extremes this early in spring. Updated model runs and real-time observations through the afternoon will refine the final recorded high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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