Recent forecast consensus from agencies including the Met Office and regional models points to a cold front and polar air mass arriving over São Paulo on September 5–6, driving maximum temperatures down to the 14–16°C range with widespread rain, high humidity, and strong southerly winds. This marks a sharp departure from the September climatological average high near 23°C. Current model runs show limited warming potential under persistent cloud cover and precipitation, supporting the market’s heaviest positioning on 15–17°C outcomes while assigning low probability to readings above 18°C or below 14°C. Updated guidance expected in the next 24 hours could further refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 6?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 6?
16°C 42%
17°C 26%
15°C 18%
18°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
13°C or below
2%
14°C
5%
15°C
18%
16°C
42%
17°C
26%
18°C
7%
19°C
3%
20°C
2%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
16°C 42%
17°C 26%
15°C 18%
18°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
13°C or below
$399 Vol.
2%
14°C
$327 Vol.
5%
15°C
$700 Vol.
18%
16°C
$411 Vol.
42%
17°C
$1,073 Vol.
26%
18°C
$901 Vol.
7%
19°C
$134 Vol.
3%
20°C
$153 Vol.
2%
21°C
$453 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$525 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$1,135 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from agencies including the Met Office and regional models points to a cold front and polar air mass arriving over São Paulo on September 5–6, driving maximum temperatures down to the 14–16°C range with widespread rain, high humidity, and strong southerly winds. This marks a sharp departure from the September climatological average high near 23°C. Current model runs show limited warming potential under persistent cloud cover and precipitation, supporting the market’s heaviest positioning on 15–17°C outcomes while assigning low probability to readings above 18°C or below 14°C. Updated guidance expected in the next 24 hours could further refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$6,211End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from agencies including the Met Office and regional models points to a cold front and polar air mass arriving over São Paulo on September 5–6, driving maximum temperatures down to the 14–16°C range with widespread rain, high humidity, and strong southerly winds. This marks a sharp departure from the September climatological average high near 23°C. Current model runs show limited warming potential under persistent cloud cover and precipitation, supporting the market’s heaviest positioning on 15–17°C outcomes while assigning low probability to readings above 18°C or below 14°C. Updated guidance expected in the next 24 hours could further refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,211End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from agencies including the Met Office and regional models points to a cold front and polar air mass arriving over São Paulo on September 5–6, driving maximum temperatures down to the 14–16°C range with widespread rain, high humidity, and strong southerly winds. This marks a sharp departure from the September climatological average high near 23°C. Current model runs show limited warming potential under persistent cloud cover and precipitation, supporting the market’s heaviest positioning on 15–17°C outcomes while assigning low probability to readings above 18°C or below 14°C. Updated guidance expected in the next 24 hours could further refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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