Trump’s approval rating has declined steadily through 2025 and into 2026, averaging 37-40% and recently reaching second-term lows near 33-36% in multiple trackers, driven primarily by voter dissatisfaction with the ongoing Iran conflict that began in late February 2026, rising gas prices, and handling of the economy, trade, and immigration. Partisan gaps remain wide, and historical patterns show approval often softens further in the lead-up to midterms. The November 2026 congressional elections represent the key scheduled event that could shift sentiment through legislative outcomes, economic indicators, or foreign policy developments. Traders are weighing whether these pressures will keep ratings suppressed or allow a rebound before year-end.