Recent polling from sources including Reuters/Ipsos and Pew shows Donald Trump's job approval in his second term declining to the low-to-mid 30s by mid-August 2026, with averages near 38% and net approval around -20 to -26. This marks a steady drop from post-inauguration highs near 47% and trails his first-term ratings at comparable points, driven primarily by voter dissatisfaction with economic management, inflation, and prices. Foreign policy handling, including tariffs and Middle East developments, has also weighed on numbers, widening the partisan divide. With 2026 midterm elections approaching, these trends shape trader assessments of whether approval stabilizes or reaches new lows before year-end, as historical patterns link sustained economic discontent to further erosion in presidential support.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$121,523 Vol.
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.Recent polling from sources including Reuters/Ipsos and Pew shows Donald Trump's job approval in his second term declining to the low-to-mid 30s by mid-August 2026, with averages near 38% and net approval around -20 to -26. This marks a steady drop from post-inauguration highs near 47% and trails his first-term ratings at comparable points, driven primarily by voter dissatisfaction with economic management, inflation, and prices. Foreign policy handling, including tariffs and Middle East developments, has also weighed on numbers, widening the partisan divide. With 2026 midterm elections approaching, these trends shape trader assessments of whether approval stabilizes or reaches new lows before year-end, as historical patterns link sustained economic discontent to further erosion in presidential support.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:49 PM ET
Volume
$121,523End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.Recent polling from sources including Reuters/Ipsos and Pew shows Donald Trump's job approval in his second term declining to the low-to-mid 30s by mid-August 2026, with averages near 38% and net approval around -20 to -26. This marks a steady drop from post-inauguration highs near 47% and trails his first-term ratings at comparable points, driven primarily by voter dissatisfaction with economic management, inflation, and prices. Foreign policy handling, including tariffs and Middle East developments, has also weighed on numbers, widening the partisan divide. With 2026 midterm elections approaching, these trends shape trader assessments of whether approval stabilizes or reaches new lows before year-end, as historical patterns link sustained economic discontent to further erosion in presidential support.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Volume
$121,523End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling from sources including Reuters/Ipsos and Pew shows Donald Trump's job approval in his second term declining to the low-to-mid 30s by mid-August 2026, with averages near 38% and net approval around -20 to -26. This marks a steady drop from post-inauguration highs near 47% and trails his first-term ratings at comparable points, driven primarily by voter dissatisfaction with economic management, inflation, and prices. Foreign policy handling, including tariffs and Middle East developments, has also weighed on numbers, widening the partisan divide. With 2026 midterm elections approaching, these trends shape trader assessments of whether approval stabilizes or reaches new lows before year-end, as historical patterns link sustained economic discontent to further erosion in presidential support.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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