Democrats currently hold two of Wisconsin’s eight U.S. House seats, with Republicans occupying the remaining six under maps that have produced limited turnover in recent cycles. The leading 41.5% probability on three Democratic seats reflects the consensus view that the sole realistic pickup opportunity lies in the 3rd District, where Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden faces a rematch against Democrat Rebecca Cooke in a seat Trump carried by roughly seven points in 2024. Most other Republican-held districts carry Lean or Solid ratings, limiting broader gains. The August 11 primaries confirmed the Cooke-Van Orden contest and produced no major surprises elsewhere, reinforcing trader focus on that single battleground while assigning lower probabilities to two or four-plus Democratic seats absent a larger-than-expected national shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3 42%
2 18%
4 18%
5+ 10.0%
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
<2
1%
2
18%
3
42%
4
18%
5+
10%
3 42%
2 18%
4 18%
5+ 10.0%
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
<2
$610 Vol.
1%
2
$1,119 Vol.
18%
3
$1,060 Vol.
42%
4
$881 Vol.
18%
5+
$737 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Wisconsin in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Wisconsin US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Democrats currently hold two of Wisconsin’s eight U.S. House seats, with Republicans occupying the remaining six under maps that have produced limited turnover in recent cycles. The leading 41.5% probability on three Democratic seats reflects the consensus view that the sole realistic pickup opportunity lies in the 3rd District, where Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden faces a rematch against Democrat Rebecca Cooke in a seat Trump carried by roughly seven points in 2024. Most other Republican-held districts carry Lean or Solid ratings, limiting broader gains. The August 11 primaries confirmed the Cooke-Van Orden contest and produced no major surprises elsewhere, reinforcing trader focus on that single battleground while assigning lower probabilities to two or four-plus Democratic seats absent a larger-than-expected national shift.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Wisconsin in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Wisconsin US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Wisconsin US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:04 AM ET
Volume
$4,407End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Wisconsin in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Wisconsin US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Democrats currently hold two of Wisconsin’s eight U.S. House seats, with Republicans occupying the remaining six under maps that have produced limited turnover in recent cycles. The leading 41.5% probability on three Democratic seats reflects the consensus view that the sole realistic pickup opportunity lies in the 3rd District, where Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden faces a rematch against Democrat Rebecca Cooke in a seat Trump carried by roughly seven points in 2024. Most other Republican-held districts carry Lean or Solid ratings, limiting broader gains. The August 11 primaries confirmed the Cooke-Van Orden contest and produced no major surprises elsewhere, reinforcing trader focus on that single battleground while assigning lower probabilities to two or four-plus Democratic seats absent a larger-than-expected national shift.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Wisconsin in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Wisconsin US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Wisconsin US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,407End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Democrats currently hold two of Wisconsin’s eight U.S. House seats, with Republicans occupying the remaining six under maps that have produced limited turnover in recent cycles. The leading 41.5% probability on three Democratic seats reflects the consensus view that the sole realistic pickup opportunity lies in the 3rd District, where Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden faces a rematch against Democrat Rebecca Cooke in a seat Trump carried by roughly seven points in 2024. Most other Republican-held districts carry Lean or Solid ratings, limiting broader gains. The August 11 primaries confirmed the Cooke-Van Orden contest and produced no major surprises elsewhere, reinforcing trader focus on that single battleground while assigning lower probabilities to two or four-plus Democratic seats absent a larger-than-expected national shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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