**Internal divisions within Iran's leadership have intensified amid the aftermath of the 2026 Iran war, U.S.-Israel strikes, and the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, fueling trader focus on coup risks.** Hardliners have publicly accused officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of plotting against Mojtaba Khamenei, framing post-war truce talks and economic concessions as a "coup." These warnings peaked in July 2026 as the U.S. truce faced pressure. Competing factions—the IRGC-aligned anti-concession camp versus economic "realists"—clash over sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and foreign policy, with mounting economic strain (oil export halt, currency shortages) adding instability. U.S. sanctions announcements expected around August 24 could further test regime cohesion, though no confirmed coup attempt has materialized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,122,697 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
9%
$2,122,697 Vol.
December 31
$81,471 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Internal divisions within Iran's leadership have intensified amid the aftermath of the 2026 Iran war, U.S.-Israel strikes, and the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, fueling trader focus on coup risks.** Hardliners have publicly accused officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of plotting against Mojtaba Khamenei, framing post-war truce talks and economic concessions as a "coup." These warnings peaked in July 2026 as the U.S. truce faced pressure.
Competing factions—the IRGC-aligned anti-concession camp versus economic "realists"—clash over sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and foreign policy, with mounting economic strain (oil export halt, currency shortages) adding instability. U.S. sanctions announcements expected around August 24 could further test regime cohesion, though no confirmed coup attempt has materialized.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,122,697End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Internal divisions within Iran's leadership have intensified amid the aftermath of the 2026 Iran war, U.S.-Israel strikes, and the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, fueling trader focus on coup risks.** Hardliners have publicly accused officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of plotting against Mojtaba Khamenei, framing post-war truce talks and economic concessions as a "coup." These warnings peaked in July 2026 as the U.S. truce faced pressure.
Competing factions—the IRGC-aligned anti-concession camp versus economic "realists"—clash over sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and foreign policy, with mounting economic strain (oil export halt, currency shortages) adding instability. U.S. sanctions announcements expected around August 24 could further test regime cohesion, though no confirmed coup attempt has materialized.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,122,697End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Internal divisions within Iran's leadership have intensified amid the aftermath of the 2026 Iran war, U.S.-Israel strikes, and the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, fueling trader focus on coup risks.** Hardliners have publicly accused officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of plotting against Mojtaba Khamenei, framing post-war truce talks and economic concessions as a "coup." These warnings peaked in July 2026 as the U.S. truce faced pressure. Competing factions—the IRGC-aligned anti-concession camp versus economic "realists"—clash over sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and foreign policy, with mounting economic strain (oil export halt, currency shortages) adding instability. U.S. sanctions announcements expected around August 24 could further test regime cohesion, though no confirmed coup attempt has materialized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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