Persistent hot and humid conditions across North Texas, with southerly flow and clear skies, are keeping overnight lows elevated and driving strong trader consensus toward an 82-83°F minimum for Dallas on September 5. Official National Weather Service and model guidance from NOAA consistently forecast a low near 80-82°F under mostly clear skies, well above the 1991-2020 climatological average of 73.8°F, with no incoming cold front or significant cloud cover to promote radiational cooling. Recent observations from Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport show prior nights bottoming out in the upper 70s, reinforcing the current warm pattern without signs of rapid change before midnight. This setup leaves little room for outcomes below 78°F, aligning market-implied probabilities with the latest forecast consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Dallas on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Dallas on September 5?
82-83°F 88%
78-79°F 16%
80-81°F 11%
76-77°F 3%
$3,822 Vol.
$3,822 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
67°F or below
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
2%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
16%
80-81°F
11%
82-83°F
88%
84-85°F
<1%
86°F or higher
<1%
82-83°F 88%
78-79°F 16%
80-81°F 11%
76-77°F 3%
$3,822 Vol.
$3,822 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
67°F or below
$62 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$62 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$22 Vol.
2%
72-73°F
$12 Vol.
2%
74-75°F
$37 Vol.
2%
76-77°F
$25 Vol.
3%
78-79°F
$62 Vol.
16%
80-81°F
$186 Vol.
11%
82-83°F
$320 Vol.
88%
84-85°F
$3,002 Vol.
<1%
86°F or higher
$32 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent hot and humid conditions across North Texas, with southerly flow and clear skies, are keeping overnight lows elevated and driving strong trader consensus toward an 82-83°F minimum for Dallas on September 5. Official National Weather Service and model guidance from NOAA consistently forecast a low near 80-82°F under mostly clear skies, well above the 1991-2020 climatological average of 73.8°F, with no incoming cold front or significant cloud cover to promote radiational cooling. Recent observations from Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport show prior nights bottoming out in the upper 70s, reinforcing the current warm pattern without signs of rapid change before midnight. This setup leaves little room for outcomes below 78°F, aligning market-implied probabilities with the latest forecast consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$3,822End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent hot and humid conditions across North Texas, with southerly flow and clear skies, are keeping overnight lows elevated and driving strong trader consensus toward an 82-83°F minimum for Dallas on September 5. Official National Weather Service and model guidance from NOAA consistently forecast a low near 80-82°F under mostly clear skies, well above the 1991-2020 climatological average of 73.8°F, with no incoming cold front or significant cloud cover to promote radiational cooling. Recent observations from Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport show prior nights bottoming out in the upper 70s, reinforcing the current warm pattern without signs of rapid change before midnight. This setup leaves little room for outcomes below 78°F, aligning market-implied probabilities with the latest forecast consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,822End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent hot and humid conditions across North Texas, with southerly flow and clear skies, are keeping overnight lows elevated and driving strong trader consensus toward an 82-83°F minimum for Dallas on September 5. Official National Weather Service and model guidance from NOAA consistently forecast a low near 80-82°F under mostly clear skies, well above the 1991-2020 climatological average of 73.8°F, with no incoming cold front or significant cloud cover to promote radiational cooling. Recent observations from Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport show prior nights bottoming out in the upper 70s, reinforcing the current warm pattern without signs of rapid change before midnight. This setup leaves little room for outcomes below 78°F, aligning market-implied probabilities with the latest forecast consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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