Forecast models for September 5, 2026, indicate Mexico City overnight lows near 12–14°C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those thresholds. At 2,240 m elevation in the Valley of Mexico, rapid radiative cooling occurs after sunset, especially under variable cloud cover typical of the late rainy season. Humidity from recent showers moderates extremes while precipitation timing influences the exact minimum. Historical September averages hover near 10–12°C, but current atmospheric conditions and model consensus support slightly milder readings. Traders weigh these factors against potential shifts in local observations or updated forecasts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 5?
9°C 88%
14°C 46%
13°C 45%
7°C or below 45%
$876 Vol.
$876 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
7°C or below
45%
8°C
2%
9°C
88%
10°C
25%
11°C
45%
12°C
45%
13°C
45%
14°C
46%
15°C
45%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
9°C 88%
14°C 46%
13°C 45%
7°C or below 45%
$876 Vol.
$876 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
7°C or below
$20 Vol.
45%
8°C
$12 Vol.
2%
9°C
$12 Vol.
88%
10°C
$30 Vol.
25%
11°C
$0 Vol.
45%
12°C
$2 Vol.
45%
13°C
$2 Vol.
45%
14°C
$2 Vol.
46%
15°C
$0 Vol.
45%
16°C
$694 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$102 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models for September 5, 2026, indicate Mexico City overnight lows near 12–14°C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those thresholds. At 2,240 m elevation in the Valley of Mexico, rapid radiative cooling occurs after sunset, especially under variable cloud cover typical of the late rainy season. Humidity from recent showers moderates extremes while precipitation timing influences the exact minimum. Historical September averages hover near 10–12°C, but current atmospheric conditions and model consensus support slightly milder readings. Traders weigh these factors against potential shifts in local observations or updated forecasts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$876End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models for September 5, 2026, indicate Mexico City overnight lows near 12–14°C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those thresholds. At 2,240 m elevation in the Valley of Mexico, rapid radiative cooling occurs after sunset, especially under variable cloud cover typical of the late rainy season. Humidity from recent showers moderates extremes while precipitation timing influences the exact minimum. Historical September averages hover near 10–12°C, but current atmospheric conditions and model consensus support slightly milder readings. Traders weigh these factors against potential shifts in local observations or updated forecasts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$876End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models for September 5, 2026, indicate Mexico City overnight lows near 12–14°C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those thresholds. At 2,240 m elevation in the Valley of Mexico, rapid radiative cooling occurs after sunset, especially under variable cloud cover typical of the late rainy season. Humidity from recent showers moderates extremes while precipitation timing influences the exact minimum. Historical September averages hover near 10–12°C, but current atmospheric conditions and model consensus support slightly milder readings. Traders weigh these factors against potential shifts in local observations or updated forecasts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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