Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Mexico City's overnight low on September 6 will likely fall in the 12–14°C range amid widespread cloud cover, high humidity, and expected rainfall tied to the peak of the rainy season. This aligns with climatological norms for early September at the city's 2,240 m elevation, where average lows hover near 10°C but often moderate under persistent moisture and reduced radiational cooling. Trader emphasis on the 17°C-or-higher outcome at 46% implied probability appears driven by uncertainty in exact minimum timing and potential for heavier precipitation to suppress temperature drops, while lower-probability cold outcomes reflect historical variability and model spread. Updated official observations from CONAGUA and airport stations tomorrow will provide the definitive reading for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 6?
7°C or below 59%
16°C 47%
11°C 33%
15°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
7°C or below
59%
8°C
6%
9°C
6%
10°C
10%
11°C
33%
12°C
25%
13°C
26%
14°C
28%
15°C
28%
16°C
47%
17°C or higher
-
7°C or below 59%
16°C 47%
11°C 33%
15°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
59%
8°C
$0 Vol.
6%
9°C
$0 Vol.
6%
10°C
$0 Vol.
10%
11°C
$0 Vol.
33%
12°C
$0 Vol.
25%
13°C
$10 Vol.
26%
14°C
$0 Vol.
28%
15°C
$0 Vol.
28%
16°C
$0 Vol.
47%
17°C or higher
$6 Vol.
-
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Mexico City's overnight low on September 6 will likely fall in the 12–14°C range amid widespread cloud cover, high humidity, and expected rainfall tied to the peak of the rainy season. This aligns with climatological norms for early September at the city's 2,240 m elevation, where average lows hover near 10°C but often moderate under persistent moisture and reduced radiational cooling. Trader emphasis on the 17°C-or-higher outcome at 46% implied probability appears driven by uncertainty in exact minimum timing and potential for heavier precipitation to suppress temperature drops, while lower-probability cold outcomes reflect historical variability and model spread. Updated official observations from CONAGUA and airport stations tomorrow will provide the definitive reading for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$16End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Mexico City's overnight low on September 6 will likely fall in the 12–14°C range amid widespread cloud cover, high humidity, and expected rainfall tied to the peak of the rainy season. This aligns with climatological norms for early September at the city's 2,240 m elevation, where average lows hover near 10°C but often moderate under persistent moisture and reduced radiational cooling. Trader emphasis on the 17°C-or-higher outcome at 46% implied probability appears driven by uncertainty in exact minimum timing and potential for heavier precipitation to suppress temperature drops, while lower-probability cold outcomes reflect historical variability and model spread. Updated official observations from CONAGUA and airport stations tomorrow will provide the definitive reading for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Mexico City's overnight low on September 6 will likely fall in the 12–14°C range amid widespread cloud cover, high humidity, and expected rainfall tied to the peak of the rainy season. This aligns with climatological norms for early September at the city's 2,240 m elevation, where average lows hover near 10°C but often moderate under persistent moisture and reduced radiational cooling. Trader emphasis on the 17°C-or-higher outcome at 46% implied probability appears driven by uncertainty in exact minimum timing and potential for heavier precipitation to suppress temperature drops, while lower-probability cold outcomes reflect historical variability and model spread. Updated official observations from CONAGUA and airport stations tomorrow will provide the definitive reading for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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