**Clear skies, light winds, and radiative cooling under high pressure are the main drivers setting market-implied odds for Munich’s September 6 minimum temperature around 9–11 °C.** Official and ensemble forecasts from sources including GFS, DWD, and ECMWF runs valid on September 5 show a sunny day with highs near 23–25 °C followed by a calm overnight period. Dew points are expected to settle near 8–10 °C, allowing surface temperatures to fall close to that level through nocturnal radiational cooling with minimal cloud cover or mixing. Light northeasterly flow (2–5 km/h) and surface pressure near 1026–1028 hPa limit advection of warmer air, keeping the overnight minimum tightly clustered in the 11–13 °C range at most guidance points, with some local urban or airport readings dipping a degree or two lower. This aligns with the climatological average low of 11.4 °C for the date while remaining well above historical extremes (lowest on record 2.7 °C). Model-to-model spread and small differences in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed explain why the market probabilities are distributed across 9 °C (22.5 %), 10 °C (24.5 %), and 11 °C (24.0 %) rather than converging on a single value. No significant weather system is approaching, so the primary near-term uncertainty is the precise timing of the minimum and any micro-scale variations between measurement sites.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Munich on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Munich on September 6?
10°C 24%
11°C 23%
9°C 22%
8°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
5°C or below
17%
6°C
13%
7°C
14%
8°C
20%
9°C
22%
10°C
24%
11°C
23%
12°C
15%
13°C
14%
14°C
15%
15°C or higher
15%
10°C 24%
11°C 23%
9°C 22%
8°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
5°C or below
$0 Vol.
17%
6°C
$271 Vol.
13%
7°C
$301 Vol.
14%
8°C
$0 Vol.
20%
9°C
$0 Vol.
22%
10°C
$0 Vol.
24%
11°C
$0 Vol.
23%
12°C
$10 Vol.
15%
13°C
$0 Vol.
14%
14°C
$0 Vol.
15%
15°C or higher
$0 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies, light winds, and radiative cooling under high pressure are the main drivers setting market-implied odds for Munich’s September 6 minimum temperature around 9–11 °C.**
Official and ensemble forecasts from sources including GFS, DWD, and ECMWF runs valid on September 5 show a sunny day with highs near 23–25 °C followed by a calm overnight period. Dew points are expected to settle near 8–10 °C, allowing surface temperatures to fall close to that level through nocturnal radiational cooling with minimal cloud cover or mixing. Light northeasterly flow (2–5 km/h) and surface pressure near 1026–1028 hPa limit advection of warmer air, keeping the overnight minimum tightly clustered in the 11–13 °C range at most guidance points, with some local urban or airport readings dipping a degree or two lower.
This aligns with the climatological average low of 11.4 °C for the date while remaining well above historical extremes (lowest on record 2.7 °C). Model-to-model spread and small differences in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed explain why the market probabilities are distributed across 9 °C (22.5 %), 10 °C (24.5 %), and 11 °C (24.0 %) rather than converging on a single value. No significant weather system is approaching, so the primary near-term uncertainty is the precise timing of the minimum and any micro-scale variations between measurement sites.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$582End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies, light winds, and radiative cooling under high pressure are the main drivers setting market-implied odds for Munich’s September 6 minimum temperature around 9–11 °C.**
Official and ensemble forecasts from sources including GFS, DWD, and ECMWF runs valid on September 5 show a sunny day with highs near 23–25 °C followed by a calm overnight period. Dew points are expected to settle near 8–10 °C, allowing surface temperatures to fall close to that level through nocturnal radiational cooling with minimal cloud cover or mixing. Light northeasterly flow (2–5 km/h) and surface pressure near 1026–1028 hPa limit advection of warmer air, keeping the overnight minimum tightly clustered in the 11–13 °C range at most guidance points, with some local urban or airport readings dipping a degree or two lower.
This aligns with the climatological average low of 11.4 °C for the date while remaining well above historical extremes (lowest on record 2.7 °C). Model-to-model spread and small differences in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed explain why the market probabilities are distributed across 9 °C (22.5 %), 10 °C (24.5 %), and 11 °C (24.0 %) rather than converging on a single value. No significant weather system is approaching, so the primary near-term uncertainty is the precise timing of the minimum and any micro-scale variations between measurement sites.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$582End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Clear skies, light winds, and radiative cooling under high pressure are the main drivers setting market-implied odds for Munich’s September 6 minimum temperature around 9–11 °C.** Official and ensemble forecasts from sources including GFS, DWD, and ECMWF runs valid on September 5 show a sunny day with highs near 23–25 °C followed by a calm overnight period. Dew points are expected to settle near 8–10 °C, allowing surface temperatures to fall close to that level through nocturnal radiational cooling with minimal cloud cover or mixing. Light northeasterly flow (2–5 km/h) and surface pressure near 1026–1028 hPa limit advection of warmer air, keeping the overnight minimum tightly clustered in the 11–13 °C range at most guidance points, with some local urban or airport readings dipping a degree or two lower. This aligns with the climatological average low of 11.4 °C for the date while remaining well above historical extremes (lowest on record 2.7 °C). Model-to-model spread and small differences in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed explain why the market probabilities are distributed across 9 °C (22.5 %), 10 °C (24.5 %), and 11 °C (24.0 %) rather than converging on a single value. No significant weather system is approaching, so the primary near-term uncertainty is the precise timing of the minimum and any micro-scale variations between measurement sites.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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