Incumbent Democrat Jim McGovern, first elected in 1997, faces no significant primary opposition ahead of the September 1, 2026, contest and encounters minimal Republican challengers for the November 3 general election in the central Massachusetts district anchored by Worcester. The seat carries a D+13 partisan voting index and has delivered consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, consistent with forecaster ratings of solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus around a 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee aligns with this structural advantage, limited organized opposition, and the absence of major developments that would alter the baseline. A late surge by an independent or Republican entrant, an unforeseen primary upset, or a major candidate-specific event could introduce volatility, though current filing status and historical patterns limit those pathways.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMA-02 House Election Winner
MA-02 House Election Winner
$58,172 Vol.
$58,172 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$58,172 Vol.
$58,172 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$32,718 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$25,454 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim McGovern, first elected in 1997, faces no significant primary opposition ahead of the September 1, 2026, contest and encounters minimal Republican challengers for the November 3 general election in the central Massachusetts district anchored by Worcester. The seat carries a D+13 partisan voting index and has delivered consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, consistent with forecaster ratings of solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus around a 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee aligns with this structural advantage, limited organized opposition, and the absence of major developments that would alter the baseline. A late surge by an independent or Republican entrant, an unforeseen primary upset, or a major candidate-specific event could introduce volatility, though current filing status and historical patterns limit those pathways.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$58,172End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim McGovern, first elected in 1997, faces no significant primary opposition ahead of the September 1, 2026, contest and encounters minimal Republican challengers for the November 3 general election in the central Massachusetts district anchored by Worcester. The seat carries a D+13 partisan voting index and has delivered consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, consistent with forecaster ratings of solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus around a 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee aligns with this structural advantage, limited organized opposition, and the absence of major developments that would alter the baseline. A late surge by an independent or Republican entrant, an unforeseen primary upset, or a major candidate-specific event could introduce volatility, though current filing status and historical patterns limit those pathways.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$58,172End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jim McGovern, first elected in 1997, faces no significant primary opposition ahead of the September 1, 2026, contest and encounters minimal Republican challengers for the November 3 general election in the central Massachusetts district anchored by Worcester. The seat carries a D+13 partisan voting index and has delivered consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, consistent with forecaster ratings of solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus around a 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee aligns with this structural advantage, limited organized opposition, and the absence of major developments that would alter the baseline. A late surge by an independent or Republican entrant, an unforeseen primary upset, or a major candidate-specific event could introduce volatility, though current filing status and historical patterns limit those pathways.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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