Nicolás Maduro and his wife face a June 2027 trial in Manhattan federal court on a superseding indictment charging narcoterrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and related weapons offenses tied to alleged facilitation of drug trafficking through Venezuelan institutions. Both have pleaded not guilty. Defense counsel plans to seek dismissal on head-of-state immunity grounds and contest the legality of the January 2026 U.S. military operation that captured them in Caracas. A September 2026 motion deadline and November hearing on jurisdictional issues precede the trial, leaving substantial room for pretrial rulings, evidentiary disputes, or negotiated resolutions before any jury verdict by the market’s December 2027 cutoff. These procedural hurdles and timeline uncertainties underpin trader assessments that a conviction on every count remains less probable than other outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated32% chance
$132,711 Vol.
$132,711 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
32% chance
$132,711 Vol.
$132,711 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro and his wife face a June 2027 trial in Manhattan federal court on a superseding indictment charging narcoterrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and related weapons offenses tied to alleged facilitation of drug trafficking through Venezuelan institutions. Both have pleaded not guilty. Defense counsel plans to seek dismissal on head-of-state immunity grounds and contest the legality of the January 2026 U.S. military operation that captured them in Caracas. A September 2026 motion deadline and November hearing on jurisdictional issues precede the trial, leaving substantial room for pretrial rulings, evidentiary disputes, or negotiated resolutions before any jury verdict by the market’s December 2027 cutoff. These procedural hurdles and timeline uncertainties underpin trader assessments that a conviction on every count remains less probable than other outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ET
Volume
$132,711End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro and his wife face a June 2027 trial in Manhattan federal court on a superseding indictment charging narcoterrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and related weapons offenses tied to alleged facilitation of drug trafficking through Venezuelan institutions. Both have pleaded not guilty. Defense counsel plans to seek dismissal on head-of-state immunity grounds and contest the legality of the January 2026 U.S. military operation that captured them in Caracas. A September 2026 motion deadline and November hearing on jurisdictional issues precede the trial, leaving substantial room for pretrial rulings, evidentiary disputes, or negotiated resolutions before any jury verdict by the market’s December 2027 cutoff. These procedural hurdles and timeline uncertainties underpin trader assessments that a conviction on every count remains less probable than other outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$132,711End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro and his wife face a June 2027 trial in Manhattan federal court on a superseding indictment charging narcoterrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and related weapons offenses tied to alleged facilitation of drug trafficking through Venezuelan institutions. Both have pleaded not guilty. Defense counsel plans to seek dismissal on head-of-state immunity grounds and contest the legality of the January 2026 U.S. military operation that captured them in Caracas. A September 2026 motion deadline and November hearing on jurisdictional issues precede the trial, leaving substantial room for pretrial rulings, evidentiary disputes, or negotiated resolutions before any jury verdict by the market’s December 2027 cutoff. These procedural hurdles and timeline uncertainties underpin trader assessments that a conviction on every count remains less probable than other outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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