Maryland's 1st congressional district maintains a consistent Republican tilt rooted in its voter composition and past election margins, supporting the strong market consensus for a Republican victory in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Andrew Harris secured the Republican nomination with over 80 percent in the June primary, while Democrat Dan Schwartz emerged from a fragmented field. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, and a July poll showed Harris ahead by double digits. These factors, combined with limited Democratic infrastructure in the district, underpin the current implied probabilities, though the general election remains months away and subject to standard midterm dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMD-01 House Election Winner
MD-01 House Election Winner
$34,922 Vol.
$34,922 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
88%
Democratic Party
14%
$34,922 Vol.
$34,922 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$19,519 Vol.
88%
Democratic Party
$15,403 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 1st congressional district maintains a consistent Republican tilt rooted in its voter composition and past election margins, supporting the strong market consensus for a Republican victory in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Andrew Harris secured the Republican nomination with over 80 percent in the June primary, while Democrat Dan Schwartz emerged from a fragmented field. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, and a July poll showed Harris ahead by double digits. These factors, combined with limited Democratic infrastructure in the district, underpin the current implied probabilities, though the general election remains months away and subject to standard midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$34,922End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 1st congressional district maintains a consistent Republican tilt rooted in its voter composition and past election margins, supporting the strong market consensus for a Republican victory in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Andrew Harris secured the Republican nomination with over 80 percent in the June primary, while Democrat Dan Schwartz emerged from a fragmented field. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, and a July poll showed Harris ahead by double digits. These factors, combined with limited Democratic infrastructure in the district, underpin the current implied probabilities, though the general election remains months away and subject to standard midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$34,922End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland's 1st congressional district maintains a consistent Republican tilt rooted in its voter composition and past election margins, supporting the strong market consensus for a Republican victory in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Andrew Harris secured the Republican nomination with over 80 percent in the June primary, while Democrat Dan Schwartz emerged from a fragmented field. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, and a July poll showed Harris ahead by double digits. These factors, combined with limited Democratic infrastructure in the district, underpin the current implied probabilities, though the general election remains months away and subject to standard midterm dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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